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Centerra Gold Inc. (TSE:CG) Stock's Been Sliding But Fundamentals Look Decent: Will The Market Correct The Share Price In The Future?

It is hard to get excited after looking at Centerra Gold's (TSE:CG) recent performance, when its stock has declined 35% over the past three months. But if you pay close attention, you might find that its key financial indicators look quite decent, which could mean that the stock could potentially rise in the long-term given how markets usually reward more resilient long-term fundamentals. In this article, we decided to focus on Centerra Gold's ROE.

Return on Equity or ROE is a test of how effectively a company is growing its value and managing investors’ money. In short, ROE shows the profit each dollar generates with respect to its shareholder investments.

View our latest analysis for Centerra Gold

How Is ROE Calculated?

ROE can be calculated by using the formula:

Return on Equity = Net Profit (from continuing operations) ÷ Shareholders' Equity

So, based on the above formula, the ROE for Centerra Gold is:

20% = US$425m ÷ US$2.1b (Based on the trailing twelve months to March 2022).

The 'return' is the profit over the last twelve months. Another way to think of that is that for every CA$1 worth of equity, the company was able to earn CA$0.20 in profit.

What Has ROE Got To Do With Earnings Growth?

We have already established that ROE serves as an efficient profit-generating gauge for a company's future earnings. Depending on how much of these profits the company reinvests or "retains", and how effectively it does so, we are then able to assess a company’s earnings growth potential. Assuming all else is equal, companies that have both a higher return on equity and higher profit retention are usually the ones that have a higher growth rate when compared to companies that don't have the same features.

Centerra Gold's Earnings Growth And 20% ROE

To begin with, Centerra Gold seems to have a respectable ROE. Especially when compared to the industry average of 10% the company's ROE looks pretty impressive. Despite this, Centerra Gold's five year net income growth was quite flat over the past five years. We reckon that there could be some other factors at play here that's limiting the company's growth. For example, it could be that the company has a high payout ratio or the business has allocated capital poorly, for instance.

We then compared Centerra Gold's net income growth with the industry and found that the company's growth figure is lower than the average industry growth rate of 27% in the same period, which is a bit concerning.

past-earnings-growth
past-earnings-growth

Earnings growth is an important metric to consider when valuing a stock. What investors need to determine next is if the expected earnings growth, or the lack of it, is already built into the share price. Doing so will help them establish if the stock's future looks promising or ominous. Has the market priced in the future outlook for CG? You can find out in our latest intrinsic value infographic research report.

Is Centerra Gold Efficiently Re-investing Its Profits?

Centerra Gold's low three-year median payout ratio of 14% (implying that the company keeps86% of its income) should mean that the company is retaining most of its earnings to fuel its growth and this should be reflected in its growth number, but that's not the case.

In addition, Centerra Gold has been paying dividends over a period of at least ten years suggesting that keeping up dividend payments is way more important to the management even if it comes at the cost of business growth. Looking at the current analyst consensus data, we can see that the company's future payout ratio is expected to rise to 40% over the next three years. Therefore, the expected rise in the payout ratio explains why the company's ROE is expected to decline to 8.7% over the same period.

Summary

Overall, we feel that Centerra Gold certainly does have some positive factors to consider. Although, we are disappointed to see a lack of growth in earnings even in spite of a high ROE and and a high reinvestment rate. We believe that there might be some outside factors that could be having a negative impact on the business. Having said that, on studying current analyst estimates, we were concerned to see that while the company has grown its earnings in the past, analysts expect its earnings to shrink in the future. To know more about the latest analysts predictions for the company, check out this visualization of analyst forecasts for the company.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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