Stocks struggle as China stimulus boost fades

By Tom Wilson

LONDON (Reuters) -Stocks globally struggled on Wednesday to maintain momentum fuelled by China's monetary stimulus measures, with crude oil retreating and the dollar under pressure.

European stocks eked out slim gains after opening in the red, following a near 1% advance a day earlier. Oil and gas shares led the losses, falling 0.5% on concerns China's stimulus plans would not do enough to boost demand.

Wall Street was set for a tepid start, too, with S&P 500 futures flat. The benchmark S&P 500 and the Dow had closed at record highs for the second straight session on Tuesday.

The dollar, meanwhile, dipped to its lowest in a month versus the euro and in two and a half years against the British pound. U.S. consumer confidence data that showed the largest decline in sentiment since August 2021 had overnight boosted the case for a second hefty interest rate cut at the Federal Reserve's next meeting.

The expectation of another 50-basis point Fed rate cut at the November meeting jumped to more than 60% from 53% a day earlier, according to CME Group's FedWatch Tool.

"It feels like more is coming on the rate cutting side," said Samy Chaar, chief economist at Lombard Odier in Geneva.

The People's Bank of China followed its announcement of wide-ranging policy easing on Tuesday with a cut to medium-term lending rates to banks on Wednesday. Beijing's broad-based stimulus - the biggest since the pandemic - also includes steps to boost China's stock market and support for the ailing property sector.

Mainland Chinese blue chips gained 1.5%, adding to a 4.3% jump in the prior session. Hong Kong's Hang Seng climbed 0.7%, adding to Tuesday's 4.1% surge.

While market players welcomed the stimulus, some analysts say the PBOC's policy weapons don't have the key enemy to economic growth in their line of sight: persistently weak consumer demand.

"It's still short of that necessary to really handle the broad imbalances of the dampening down of domestic demand in China," Lombard Odier's Chaar said of the measures.

The strong start for Chinese stocks briefly invigorated other regional indexes, but those gains soon fizzled. MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan gained 0.4%.

"The debate remains intense on whether there are legs to this rally, though the desk is seeing investors opting to buy/short cover first and ask questions later," UBS analysts wrote in a note to clients.

Brent crude futures slipped 0.7% to $74.65 a barrel, not far from Tuesday's high of $75.87, a level previously not seen since early September.

U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude slipped 0.8% to $71.01 per barrel.

DOLLAR ON THE BACK FOOT

Overall, the dollar stayed on the back foot.

After China's stimulus, the yuan strengthened to a 16-month high, crossing the key 7-per-dollar level in offshore trading before retreating to 7.0173 per dollar.

The euro added 0.1% to $1.1187 after earlier pushing as far as $1.1199 for the first time since Aug. 26.

The Japanese yen was steady at 143.23 per dollar, after earlier flipping between moderate gains and losses.

Sterling slipped against the dollar, retreating from a two-and-a-half-year peak, as investors turn their focus to next month's British budget and the Bank of England's interest rate decision due eight days afterwards.

The pound fell 0.3% to $1.3372, marking a break after five consecutive days of gains.

Meanwhile, Australia's dollar initially scaled its highest since February of last year at $0.6908 but then slipped back to sit at $0.68805 after inflation figures showed some cooling, potentially setting up an earlier rate cut by the central bank.

"The fall in the underlying measures of inflation is an unexpected and welcomed surprise," said Tony Sycamore, an analyst at IG, a brokerage.

Gold marked a new record peak at $2,670.43.

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(Reporting by Tom Wilson in London; additional reporting by Kevin Buckland in Tokyo; Editing by Sam Holmes, Ros Russell and Chizu Nomiyama )