Cigna, Humana Merger Deal ‘Math Now Works,’ Jefferies Says

(Bloomberg) -- Cigna Group could resume its abandoned pursuit of Humana Inc. after the stock prices have moved to the point where a deal makes financial sense, according to Jefferies.

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The two companies had reportedly been discussing a cash-and-stock deal in November, but talks fell through when the sides couldn’t agree on a price. But now, with Humana’s stock down about 32% since then and Cigna’s up 36%, an acquisition seems plausible, analyst David Windley wrote in a note to clients on Monday.

“The math now works for a CI+HUM fusion,” Windley wrote, adding that a deal for about $420 per Humana share is possible. Humana’s stock was down 0.9% on Monday to close at roughly $325, while Cigna edged up 0.2% to around $353.

Windley said an acquisition could contribute to Cigna’s growth as long as it doesn’t pay more than $470 per share and Humana reaches earnings of $23 per share in 2027. Analysts expect the company to report earnings of $16.12 in 2024.

Read more: Humana Outlook Reset Sparks Worst Month in Nearly 12 Years

Humana is scheduled to report its first-quarter earnings on Wednesday before the market open, while Cigna is due to report on May 2.

(Updates with closing prices throughout.)

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