Copper market soothsayers suggest metal's downtrend intact

* Copper Fibonacci levels: http://link.reuters.com/fec26w

* Could go higher before downtrend resumes

* Late shorts may run on recovery signs, fuel bigger rally

By Pratima Desai

LONDON, Nov 25 (Reuters) - Copper has paused after hefty losses in the last few months on uncertainty over all-important Chinese demand, but analysts who study past price patterns to forecast future direction say the metal is on track to lurch lower.

Lows last seen in 2009 may be brought into view if prices decisively breach the psychological $4,400 level, causing further anxiety for major mining companies.

Benchmark copper on the London Metal Exchange hit $4,443.50 a tonne this week, a loss of 30 percent since the 2015 high of $6,481 in May. It (Other OTC: ITGL - news) was around $4,550 on Wednesday.

Escalating worries about weaker demand growth in China, which accounts for nearly half of global consumption estimated at around 23 million tonnes, helped push copper below the crucial $4,500 on Monday.

"The trend on the downside is very well established. Any short term rallies are being used to sell into," Kash Kamal, research analyst at Sucden Financial, said.

"Another break of $4,400 would be bearish and you could see $4,350 -- a trend channel level on the weekly chart -- quickly."

The $4,400 level is also near a Fibonacci retracement of the rise between late 2008, when prices crashed following the collapse of Lehman Brothers, and 2011.

"We remain quite bearish while copper remains below the Sept. and August lows," Commerzbank (Xetra: CBK100 - news) analyst Axel Rudolph said. "My target is $4,400, if that were to give way, the next major support is $4,000."

The $4,000 level would mean more pain for producers. Swiss-based Glencore (Xetra: A1JAGV - news) has pledged to cut its net debt from nearly $30 billion to $20 billion by the end of 2016, a plan the company said would allow it withstand copper prices of $4,000 a tonne.

Before copper finds its way to the psychological $4,000 mark it would have to breach $4,315, its low from May 2009.

But traders say, some short-position covering might be needed before copper has another stab at the downside.

"A clear-out could mean we go higher before we go lower," one copper trader said.

Upside targets if prices manage to hold above $4,600 are the August low at $4,855 and $4,915.50, the September low.

"There are some late shorts, which would run at any signs of a recovery. If gains come alongside better manufacturing news from China, we could see $5,000," the trader said. "But we know producers are looking to hedge near $5,000."

Key data on China's manufacturing sector is due on Dec. 1. (Reporting by Pratima Desai; Editing by Veronica Brown and Jane Merriman)