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Did J D Wetherspoon's (LON:JDW) Share Price Deserve to Gain 99%?

Stock pickers are generally looking for stocks that will outperform the broader market. And in our experience, buying the right stocks can give your wealth a significant boost. For example, the J D Wetherspoon plc (LON:JDW) share price is up 99% in the last 5 years, clearly besting the market return of around 10% (ignoring dividends). On the other hand, the more recent gains haven't been so impressive, with shareholders gaining just 55% , including dividends .

Check out our latest analysis for J D Wetherspoon

To paraphrase Benjamin Graham: Over the short term the market is a voting machine, but over the long term it's a weighing machine. One way to examine how market sentiment has changed over time is to look at the interaction between a company's share price and its earnings per share (EPS).

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During five years of share price growth, J D Wetherspoon achieved compound earnings per share (EPS) growth of 16% per year. This EPS growth is reasonably close to the 15% average annual increase in the share price. This indicates that investor sentiment towards the company has not changed a great deal. Rather, the share price has approximately tracked EPS growth.

You can see how EPS has changed over time in the image below (click on the chart to see the exact values).

LSE:JDW Past and Future Earnings, December 23rd 2019
LSE:JDW Past and Future Earnings, December 23rd 2019

Dive deeper into J D Wetherspoon's key metrics by checking this interactive graph of J D Wetherspoon's earnings, revenue and cash flow.

What About Dividends?

It is important to consider the total shareholder return, as well as the share price return, for any given stock. The TSR is a return calculation that accounts for the value of cash dividends (assuming that any dividend received was reinvested) and the calculated value of any discounted capital raisings and spin-offs. It's fair to say that the TSR gives a more complete picture for stocks that pay a dividend. We note that for J D Wetherspoon the TSR over the last 5 years was 111%, which is better than the share price return mentioned above. And there's no prize for guessing that the dividend payments largely explain the divergence!

A Different Perspective

It's good to see that J D Wetherspoon has rewarded shareholders with a total shareholder return of 55% in the last twelve months. Of course, that includes the dividend. That's better than the annualised return of 16% over half a decade, implying that the company is doing better recently. Someone with an optimistic perspective could view the recent improvement in TSR as indicating that the business itself is getting better with time. Before spending more time on J D Wetherspoon it might be wise to click here to see if insiders have been buying or selling shares.

If you like to buy stocks alongside management, then you might just love this free list of companies. (Hint: insiders have been buying them).

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on GB exchanges.

If you spot an error that warrants correction, please contact the editor at editorial-team@simplywallst.com. This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Simply Wall St has no position in the stocks mentioned.

We aim to bring you long-term focused research analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Thank you for reading.