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Did You Manage To Avoid ING Groep's (AMS:INGA) 17% Share Price Drop?

ING Groep N.V. (AMS:INGA) shareholders should be happy to see the share price up 24% in the last quarter. But that cannot eclipse the less-than-impressive returns over the last three years. Truth be told the share price declined 17% in three years and that return, Dear Reader, falls short of what you could have got from passive investing with an index fund.

See our latest analysis for ING Groep

While markets are a powerful pricing mechanism, share prices reflect investor sentiment, not just underlying business performance. One imperfect but simple way to consider how the market perception of a company has shifted is to compare the change in the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price movement.

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During the unfortunate three years of share price decline, ING Groep actually saw its earnings per share (EPS) improve by 6.8% per year. Given the share price reaction, one might suspect that EPS is not a good guide to the business performance during the period (perhaps due to a one-off loss or gain). Or else the company was over-hyped in the past, and so its growth has disappointed.

It's worth taking a look at other metrics, because the EPS growth doesn't seem to match with the falling share price.

We note that the dividend seems healthy enough, so that probably doesn't explain the share price drop. Revenue has been pretty flat over three years, so that isn't an obvious reason shareholders would sell. A closer look at revenue and profit trends might yield insights.

The company's revenue and earnings (over time) are depicted in the image below (click to see the exact numbers).

ENXTAM:INGA Income Statement, November 18th 2019
ENXTAM:INGA Income Statement, November 18th 2019

ING Groep is a well known stock, with plenty of analyst coverage, suggesting some visibility into future growth. If you are thinking of buying or selling ING Groep stock, you should check out this free report showing analyst consensus estimates for future profits.

What About Dividends?

It is important to consider the total shareholder return, as well as the share price return, for any given stock. Whereas the share price return only reflects the change in the share price, the TSR includes the value of dividends (assuming they were reinvested) and the benefit of any discounted capital raising or spin-off. So for companies that pay a generous dividend, the TSR is often a lot higher than the share price return. In the case of ING Groep, it has a TSR of -3.4% for the last 3 years. That exceeds its share price return that we previously mentioned. This is largely a result of its dividend payments!

A Different Perspective

ING Groep provided a TSR of 3.8% over the last twelve months. But that was short of the market average. The silver lining is that the gain was actually better than the average annual return of 3.2% per year over five year. This could indicate that the company is winning over new investors, as it pursues its strategy. If you would like to research ING Groep in more detail then you might want to take a look at whether insiders have been buying or selling shares in the company.

We will like ING Groep better if we see some big insider buys. While we wait, check out this free list of growing companies with considerable, recent, insider buying.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on NL exchanges.

We aim to bring you long-term focused research analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.

If you spot an error that warrants correction, please contact the editor at editorial-team@simplywallst.com. This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Simply Wall St has no position in the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading.