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Did NZME's (NZSE:NZM) Share Price Deserve to Gain 62%?

Simply Wall St
·3-min read

Passive investing in index funds can generate returns that roughly match the overall market. But investors can boost returns by picking market-beating companies to own shares in. For example, the NZME Limited (NZSE:NZM) share price is up 62% in the last year, clearly besting the market return of around 6.7% (not including dividends). So that should have shareholders smiling. In contrast, the longer term returns are negative, since the share price is 29% lower than it was three years ago.

See our latest analysis for NZME

In his essay The Superinvestors of Graham-and-Doddsville Warren Buffett described how share prices do not always rationally reflect the value of a business. By comparing earnings per share (EPS) and share price changes over time, we can get a feel for how investor attitudes to a company have morphed over time.

Over the last twelve months NZME went from profitable to unprofitable. While this may prove temporary, we'd consider it a negative, so we would not have expected to see the share price up. We might get a clue to explain the share price move by looking to other metrics.

NZME's revenue actually dropped 11% over last year. So the fundamental metrics don't provide an obvious explanation for the share price gain.

You can see below how earnings and revenue have changed over time (discover the exact values by clicking on the image).

earnings-and-revenue-growth
earnings-and-revenue-growth

Take a more thorough look at NZME's financial health with this free report on its balance sheet.

A Different Perspective

Pleasingly, NZME's total shareholder return last year was 62%. What is absolutely clear is that is far preferable to the dismal 6% average annual loss suffered over the last three years. It could well be that the business has turned around -- or else regained the confidence of investors. While it is well worth considering the different impacts that market conditions can have on the share price, there are other factors that are even more important. Even so, be aware that NZME is showing 2 warning signs in our investment analysis , you should know about...

Of course, you might find a fantastic investment by looking elsewhere. So take a peek at this free list of companies we expect will grow earnings.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on NZ exchanges.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com.