Yahoo Finance Are Discovery Limited's (JSE:DSY) Mixed Financials Driving The Negative Sentiment?
Discovery (JSE:DSY) has had a rough three months with its share price down 12%. It seems that the market might have completely ignored the positive aspects of the company's fundamentals and decided to weigh-in more on the negative aspects. Long-term fundamentals are usually what drive market outcomes, so it's worth paying close attention. Specifically, we decided to study Discovery's ROE in this article.
Return on Equity or ROE is a test of how effectively a company is growing its value and managing investors’ money. Simply put, it is used to assess the profitability of a company in relation to its equity capital.
See our latest analysis for Discovery
How Is ROE Calculated?
Return on equity can be calculated by using the formula:
Return on Equity = Net Profit (from continuing operations) ÷ Shareholders' Equity
So, based on the above formula, the ROE for Discovery is:
8.3% = R5.3b ÷ R64b (Based on the trailing twelve months to June 2023).
The 'return' is the profit over the last twelve months. That means that for every ZAR1 worth of shareholders' equity, the company generated ZAR0.08 in profit.
What Has ROE Got To Do With Earnings Growth?
So far, we've learned that ROE is a measure of a company's profitability. We now need to evaluate how much profit the company reinvests or "retains" for future growth which then gives us an idea about the growth potential of the company. Generally speaking, other things being equal, firms with a high return on equity and profit retention, have a higher growth rate than firms that don’t share these attributes.
Discovery's Earnings Growth And 8.3% ROE
As you can see, Discovery's ROE looks pretty weak. Even when compared to the industry average of 16%, the ROE figure is pretty disappointing. Therefore, it might not be wrong to say that the five year net income decline of 3.1% seen by Discovery was possibly a result of it having a lower ROE. However, there could also be other factors causing the earnings to decline. For instance, the company has a very high payout ratio, or is faced with competitive pressures.
So, as a next step, we compared Discovery's performance against the industry and were disappointed to discover that while the company has been shrinking its earnings, the industry has been growing its earnings at a rate of 2.1% over the last few years.
Earnings growth is an important metric to consider when valuing a stock. It’s important for an investor to know whether the market has priced in the company's expected earnings growth (or decline). By doing so, they will have an idea if the stock is headed into clear blue waters or if swampy waters await. If you're wondering about Discovery's's valuation, check out this gauge of its price-to-earnings ratio, as compared to its industry.
Is Discovery Making Efficient Use Of Its Profits?
Discovery's low LTM (or last twelve month) payout ratio of 14% (or a retention ratio of 86%) over the last three years should mean that the company is retaining most of its earnings to fuel its growth but the company's earnings have actually shrunk. This typically shouldn't be the case when a company is retaining most of its earnings. So there might be other factors at play here which could potentially be hampering growth. For instance, the business has faced some headwinds.
Additionally, Discovery has paid dividends over a period of at least ten years, which means that the company's management is determined to pay dividends even if it means little to no earnings growth. Our latest analyst data shows that the future payout ratio of the company over the next three years is expected to be approximately 14%. However, Discovery's ROE is predicted to rise to 15% despite there being no anticipated change in its payout ratio.
Conclusion
On the whole, we feel that the performance shown by Discovery can be open to many interpretations. Even though it appears to be retaining most of its profits, given the low ROE, investors may not be benefitting from all that reinvestment after all. The low earnings growth suggests our theory correct. That being so, the latest industry analyst forecasts show that the analysts are expecting to see a huge improvement in the company's earnings growth rate. Are these analysts expectations based on the broad expectations for the industry, or on the company's fundamentals? Click here to be taken to our analyst's forecasts page for the company.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
