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What Does Lumentum Holdings Inc.'s (NASDAQ:LITE) Share Price Indicate?

·3-min read

Lumentum Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ:LITE), is not the largest company out there, but it led the NASDAQGS gainers with a relatively large price hike in the past couple of weeks. As a mid-cap stock with high coverage by analysts, you could assume any recent changes in the company’s outlook is already priced into the stock. However, what if the stock is still a bargain? Let’s examine Lumentum Holdings’s valuation and outlook in more detail to determine if there’s still a bargain opportunity.

See our latest analysis for Lumentum Holdings

What's The Opportunity In Lumentum Holdings?

Lumentum Holdings is currently expensive based on my price multiple model, where I look at the company's price-to-earnings ratio in comparison to the industry average. I’ve used the price-to-earnings ratio in this instance because there’s not enough visibility to forecast its cash flows. The stock’s ratio of 33.61x is currently well-above the industry average of 22.15x, meaning that it is trading at a more expensive price relative to its peers. Furthermore, Lumentum Holdings’s share price also seems relatively stable compared to the rest of the market, as indicated by its low beta. If you believe the share price should eventually reach levels around its industry peers, a low beta could suggest it is unlikely to rapidly do so anytime soon, and once it’s there, it may be hard to fall back down into an attractive buying range.

What kind of growth will Lumentum Holdings generate?

earnings-and-revenue-growth
earnings-and-revenue-growth

Future outlook is an important aspect when you’re looking at buying a stock, especially if you are an investor looking for growth in your portfolio. Buying a great company with a robust outlook at a cheap price is always a good investment, so let’s also take a look at the company's future expectations. With profit expected to grow by 83% over the next couple of years, the future seems bright for Lumentum Holdings. It looks like higher cash flow is on the cards for the stock, which should feed into a higher share valuation.

What This Means For You

Are you a shareholder? LITE’s optimistic future growth appears to have been factored into the current share price, with shares trading above industry price multiples. However, this brings up another question – is now the right time to sell? If you believe LITE should trade below its current price, selling high and buying it back up again when its price falls towards the industry PE ratio can be profitable. But before you make this decision, take a look at whether its fundamentals have changed.

Are you a potential investor? If you’ve been keeping tabs on LITE for some time, now may not be the best time to enter into the stock. The price has surpassed its industry peers, which means it is likely that there is no more upside from mispricing. However, the optimistic prospect is encouraging for LITE, which means it’s worth diving deeper into other factors in order to take advantage of the next price drop.

So while earnings quality is important, it's equally important to consider the risks facing Lumentum Holdings at this point in time. In terms of investment risks, we've identified 1 warning sign with Lumentum Holdings, and understanding this should be part of your investment process.

If you are no longer interested in Lumentum Holdings, you can use our free platform to see our list of over 50 other stocks with a high growth potential.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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