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Does Serco Group plc (LON:SRP) Have A High Beta?

Anyone researching Serco Group plc (LON:SRP) might want to consider the historical volatility of the share price. Modern finance theory considers volatility to be a measure of risk, and there are two main types of price volatility. First, we have company specific volatility, which is the price gyrations of an individual stock. Holding at least 8 stocks can reduce this kind of risk across a portfolio. The second sort is caused by the natural volatility of markets, overall. For example, certain macroeconomic events will impact (virtually) all stocks on the market.

Some stocks mimic the volatility of the market quite closely, while others demonstrate muted, exagerrated or uncorrelated price movements. Beta is a widely used metric to measure a stock's exposure to market risk (volatility). Before we go on, it's worth noting that Warren Buffett pointed out in his 2014 letter to shareholders that 'volatility is far from synonymous with risk.' Having said that, beta can still be rather useful. The first thing to understand about beta is that the beta of the overall market is one. Any stock with a beta of greater than one is considered more volatile than the market, while those with a beta below one are either less volatile or poorly correlated with the market.

View our latest analysis for Serco Group

What SRP's beta value tells investors

Given that it has a beta of 0.85, we can surmise that the Serco Group share price has not been strongly impacted by broader market volatility (over the last 5 years). If history is a good guide, owning the stock should help ensure that your portfolio is not overly sensitive to market volatility. Many would argue that beta is useful in position sizing, but fundamental metrics such as revenue and earnings are more important overall. You can see Serco Group's revenue and earnings in the image below.

LSE:SRP Income Statement, November 26th 2019
LSE:SRP Income Statement, November 26th 2019

Does SRP's size influence the expected beta?

With a market capitalisation of UK£1.9b, Serco Group is a pretty big company, even by global standards. It is quite likely well known to very many investors. When a large company like this trades with a low beta value, it is often because there is some other systemic factor influencing the share price. For example, commodity prices might influence a mining company strongly, while expectations around dividend payments (and capital expenditure requirements) might have a big impact on utilities.

What this means for you:

The Serco Group doesn't usually show much sensitivity to the broader market. This could be for a variety of reasons. Typically, smaller companies have a low beta if their share price tends to move a lot due to company specific developments. Alternatively, an strong dividend payer might move less than the market because investors are valuing it for its income stream. In order to fully understand whether SRP is a good investment for you, we also need to consider important company-specific fundamentals such as Serco Group’s financial health and performance track record. I urge you to continue your research by taking a look at the following:

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  1. Future Outlook: What are well-informed industry analysts predicting for SRP’s future growth? Take a look at our free research report of analyst consensus for SRP’s outlook.

  2. Past Track Record: Has SRP been consistently performing well irrespective of the ups and downs in the market? Go into more detail in the past performance analysis and take a look at the free visual representations of SRP's historicals for more clarity.

  3. Other Interesting Stocks: It's worth checking to see how SRP measures up against other companies on valuation. You could start with this free list of prospective options.

If you spot an error that warrants correction, please contact the editor at editorial-team@simplywallst.com. This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Simply Wall St has no position in the stocks mentioned.

We aim to bring you long-term focused research analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Thank you for reading.