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Does Smart Metering Systems's (LON:SMS) Share Price Gain of 30% Match Its Business Performance?

Simply Wall St

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Smart Metering Systems plc (LON:SMS) shareholders might be concerned after seeing the share price drop 12% in the last month. But at least the stock is up over the last five years. In that time, it is up 30%, which isn't bad, but is below the market return of 34%.

View our latest analysis for Smart Metering Systems

To paraphrase Benjamin Graham: Over the short term the market is a voting machine, but over the long term it's a weighing machine. One flawed but reasonable way to assess how sentiment around a company has changed is to compare the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price.

Smart Metering Systems's earnings per share are down 13% per year, despite strong share price performance over five years. This means it's unlikely the market is judging the company based on earnings growth. Since the change in EPS doesn't seem to correlate with the change in share price, it's worth taking a look at other metrics.

We doubt the modest 1.1% dividend yield is attracting many buyers to the stock. In contrast revenue growth of 22% per year is probably viewed as evidence that Smart Metering Systems is growing, a real positive. In that case, the company may be sacrificing current earnings per share to drive growth.

The chart below shows how revenue and earnings have changed with time, (if you click on the chart you can see the actual values).

AIM:SMS Income Statement, April 8th 2019

If you are thinking of buying or selling Smart Metering Systems stock, you should check out this FREE detailed report on its balance sheet.

What About Dividends?

It is important to consider the total shareholder return, as well as the share price return, for any given stock. The TSR incorporates the value of any spin-offs or discounted capital raisings, along with any dividends, based on the assumption that the dividends are reinvested. It's fair to say that the TSR gives a more complete picture for stocks that pay a dividend. We note that for Smart Metering Systems the TSR over the last 5 years was 35%, which is better than the share price return mentioned above. And there's no prize for guessing that the dividend payments largely explain the divergence!

A Different Perspective

Investors in Smart Metering Systems had a tough year, with a total loss of 26% (including dividends), against a market gain of about 6.1%. However, keep in mind that even the best stocks will sometimes underperform the market over a twelve month period. Longer term investors wouldn't be so upset, since they would have made 6.1%, each year, over five years. If the fundamental data continues to indicate long term sustainable growth, the current sell-off could be an opportunity worth considering. Most investors take the time to check the data on insider transactions. You can click here to see if insiders have been buying or selling.

For those who like to find winning investments this free list of growing companies with recent insider purchasing, could be just the ticket.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on GB exchanges.

We aim to bring you long-term focused research analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.

If you spot an error that warrants correction, please contact the editor at editorial-team@simplywallst.com. This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Simply Wall St has no position in the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading.