Eastern Europe's politics get messier

* A look at the day ahead from special correspondent for Europe Noah Barkin and EMEA deputry markets editor Sujata Rao-Coverley. The views expressed are their own.

BERLIN/LONDON, April 6 (Reuters) - Politics in eastern Europe is getting messier. Tens of thousands of protesters took to the streets of Bratislava on Thursday evening, demanding more change following the murder of an investigative journalist in Slovakia in February. In the Czech Republic, slow-moving talks to form a government appear to be on the verge of collapse. And in Poland, Jaroslaw Kaczynski, the pugnacious leader of the ruling Law and Justice (PiS) party, is suddenly showing some humility, amid an uproar over bonuses paid to government ministers. He has promised to govern more "modestly" in the future. Still, the main focus over the coming days will be on Hungary, where Viktor Orban, the problem child of the European Union, is on track to win a third term in an election on Sunday. He will hold a final campaign rally on Friday and get a visit from Kaczynski and the Polish prime minister. After a messy election in Italy, the vote in Hungary could deal another blow to the grand reform plans of French President Emmanuel Macron and expose the depth of political divisions in the bloc.

Fascinating developments continue in the Salisbury poisoning case, after Yulia Skripal surprised everyone with a public statement on Thursday saying she was recovering well from the nerve agent attack that Britain has blamed on Russia. In rhetoric reminiscent of the Cold War, Russia warned Britain at the United Nations Security Council that it was "playing with fire" and would be sorry for accusing Russia of masterminding the attack on Skripal and her father, a former Russian spy. Although one German official has demanded proof from Prime Minister Theresa May of Russia's culpability, Britain’s allies in Berlin, Paris and Washington seem firmly behind May for now.

More poor economic data arrived from Germany, with industrial output sliding 1.6 percent in February, the biggest dip in more than two years. This comes a day after orders posted a disappointing rebound from their January slide – and amid broader signs that Europe may be losing momentum just as a trade war between the United States and China erupts. Elsewhere in Germany, Carles Puigdemont, the former leader of Catalonia, may be out on bail as soon as Friday after a German court ruled that he could be released on condition he remain in the country while extradition proceedings continue. The court rejected an extradition request on the charge of rebellion but said it was possible on the lesser charge of misuse of public funds.

MARKETS AT 6.55 GMT What an up-and-down week. Just as markets had calmed down somewhat on the prospect of trade wars, U.S. President Donald Trump fires off another salvo – this time threatening $100 billion in tariffs on China. That immediately pushed U.S. equity futures down 1 percent, where they remain. The statement drew a pledge for "new measures" by Beijing.

Moves in Asia, however, after a knee-jerk selloff, were less pronounced. Non-Japan Asia was flat, though Korean and Taiwanese markets were down around half a percent. Japan’s Nikkei was off 0.3 percent and MSCI’s emerging equity index down 0.2 percent. One reason, of course, is that Chinese markets are shut. It may be that investors retain their faith that a) there will not be an all-out trade war; b) the impact on world growth and earnings will be limited; and c) the near 10 percent retreat in MSCI world equities since January peaks has priced in those setbacks.

First (Other OTC: FSTC - news) -quarter U.S. earnings season could see aggregate annual S&P500 profit growth coming in at close to 20 percent – by some estimates the highest in seven years - as Trump’s tax cuts take effect. On the economic front, above-forecast U.S. private-sector job readings for March, released on Wednesday, have set the stage for March payrolls data. Expectations are 193,000 jobs were added in March after 313,000 in February, and that hourly earnings picked up 0.2 percent, according to a Reuters poll. That would put annual average hourly earnings growth at 2.7 percent. (Editing by Larry King)