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ECB Minutes - Markets Believe Asset Purchases Likely to Conclude by End of 2018

ECB confident inflation will return to 2% target, note market expectations for asset purchases
ECB confident inflation will return to 2% target, note market expectations for asset purchases

Investing.com - Minutes from the European Central Bank's April 26 policy meeting released Thursday revealed that policymakers were confident that inflation would return to the 2% target in the medium term, while they recognized that markets expected that the asset purchase program would be concluded by the end of this year.

Last month the ECB left the interest rate on the main refinancing operations and the interest rates on the marginal lending facility and the deposit facility unchanged at 0.00%, 0.25% and -0.40%, respectively.

It also confirmed that its asset purchase program would remain at €30 billion ($35.2 billion) a month would continue, until the end of September or beyond if necessary.

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At that meeting, ECB president Mario Draghi acknowledged the slowdown in the euro zone economy, referring to it as a “moderation”. However, Draghi blamed temporary factors such as a harsh winter, strikes, and the early date of Easter, in March instead of April.

The minutes recognized that there had been “some moderation in activity, but so far remained consistent with a solid and broad-based expansion of the euro area economy.”

“The underlying strength of the euro area economy continued to support the Governing Council’s confidence that inflation would gradually converge to its inflation aim of below, but close to, 2% over the medium term,” the minutes stated.

Nevertheless, the IHS Markit purchasing managers’ index released on Wednesday showed that business activity in the region sank to an 18-month low in May, dampening ECB prospects for the removal of policy accommodation.

The minutes showed that members "broadly agreed" that financial conditions continued to be "very accommodative overall", in spite of increased uncertainty and volatility in some markets.

"A remark was made that survey and analysts’ expectations regarding APP net purchases were unchanged, with market participants continuing to anticipate net purchases concluding towards the end of 2018." the ECB noted.

Overall, the minutes were largely in line with Draghi’s message at the April 26 press conference and little movement was seen in Forex markets after the publication.

At 7:42AM ET (11:42GMT), EUR/USD was trading at 1.1711 from around 1.11715 ahead of the release, while EUR/GBP was at 0.8745 from 0.8744 earlier.

The next monetary policy meeting will take place on June 14.

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