Elon Musk isn’t the only CEO thinking about falling birth rates
Good morning.
I’m at the Milken Institute Global Conference in Los Angeles this week, where there’s a lot of debate about trends shaping the global business landscape. As expected, the spotlight gravitated to familiar names and topics like the timing of future rate cuts. Citadel CEO Ken Griffin predicted the Fed will cut rates this year, while New York Fed President John Williams said cuts would come “eventually.”
What’s fascinating is how some of the more existential trends are being discussed. Elon Musk, father of 11, talked about falling birth rates leading to “a civilization that ends not with a bang but a whimper, in adult diapers.” Declining fertility rates, much like climate change, are slow-boiling trends that are easy to ignore until they reach a tipping point, causing higher costs and lower growth.
But new technologies could alter how demographic changes play out, as could reimagined public policy, job design, and immigration. Fewer people can mean fewer opportunities to build wealth. But fewer people also need fewer resources. What matters is the mindset of those most impacted by this shift.
That’s a focus for Penny Pennington, managing partner of Edward Jones Investments, which has more than 15,000 locations across North America. With the coming transfer of $84 trillion in assets from baby boomers to younger generations, she’s trying to help her agents prepare for a different customer with different priorities. “We’re assuming they want a career trajectory that is at one company where you climb the ladder for 40 years,” says Pennington, “that they want to buy a house and have two kids and put down roots.” Many, of course, do not.
Another trend that Pennington is watching: the move towards private capital markets. “When the public markets are not a place where companies that are innovating want to be, individual investors can’t invest in that growth,” says Pennington. She also put a new twist on an old metaphor: "Data is the new oil, the new sand, or the new asbestos”—depending on how companies use it.
I’m curious to hear how you think about these trends as you navigate new opportunities in volatile times. More to come.
Diane Brady
@dianebrady
diane.brady@fortune.com
This story was originally featured on Fortune.com