EMERGING MARKETS-Dollar surge sends emerging currencies reeling
By Alexander Winning
LONDON, Oct (Shenzhen: 000069.SZ - news) 2 (Reuters) - Emerging market currencies slipped
on Monday, extending losses from last week as a strong dollar
and rising U.S. Treasury yields outweighed upbeat factory data
from China.
Emerging markets are one of the top-performing asset classes
of 2017, with double-digit gains in some sectors, but they have
fallen back in recent weeks as the dollar has risen on
expectations of a U.S. rate rise by the end of the year and the
possible appointment of a more hawkish U.S. Federal Reserve
chief.
South Africa's rand , Russia's rouble and
Turkey's lira all fell around 0.5 percent against the
dollar as the dollar index rose further after enjoying
its best week of 2017 last week, and yields on 10-year U.S.
Treasuries hit their highest since July.
Emerging currencies hit five-week lows last week on
JPMorgan (LSE: JPIU.L - news) 's ELMI Plus index, losing more than 1 percent.
"You're seeing some repricing on the U.S. side on a
combination of the possibility of tax reform in the U.S. being
approved and maybe a more hawkish Fed governor," said Jakob
Christensen, an emerging markets analyst at Danske Bank (LSE: 0NVC.L - news) .
"That is playing into a stronger dollar, and goes hand in
hand with higher U.S. rates, which is typically tricky for
emerging markets," he said.
Investors were cheered by data showing manufacturing
activity in China grew at the fastest pace since 2012 in
September since that data paints a rosy picture for demand for
emerging market exports.
But with markets in China, South Korea and India closed for
public holidays, MSCI (Frankfurt: 3HM.F - news) 's benchmark emerging equity index
was little changed, and trading some 3 percent below
three-year highs struck in September.
There were gains, however, on emerging European equities,
with Warsaw and Budapest rising 0.7 and 0.9 percent respectively
, after robust purchasing manager (PMI) surveys.
"On the equity side we have seen a significant rally and
maybe the prices are beginning to be a bit stretched, but the
strong PMIs suggest the global economy is doing quite well and
supporting the trade-oriented emerging markets," Danske Bank's
Christensen said.
On bond markets, Abu Dhabi was the latest country to test
markets with plans for a triple-tranche U.S. dollar-denominated
bond issue .
Demand remains strong for emerging market paper, with the
spread of sovereign debt over U.S. Treasuries near its lowest
since August 2014 . Average yields on emerging currency
debt nudged back below 6 percent after rising last week
.
JPMorgan analysts said that while headwinds for emerging
debt had increased, they remained overweight.
"Given the repricing that has already been seen in market
expectations for U.S. rates and emerging currency valuations
that are attractive, we are inclined to think the worst of this
move is behind us," they told clients.
For GRAPHIC on emerging market FX performance 2017, see http://tmsnrt.rs/2e7eoml
For GRAPHIC on MSCI emerging index performance 2017, see http://tmsnrt.rs/2dZbdP5
For CENTRAL EUROPE market report, see
For TURKISH market report, see
For RUSSIAN market report, see )
Emerging Markets Prices from Reuters
Equities Latest Net Chg % Chg % Chg
on year
Morgan Stanley (Xetra: 885836 - news)
Emrg Mkt Indx 1082.34 +0.62 +0.06 +25.52
Czech Rep 1049.86 +4.69 +0.45 +13.92
Poland 2474.34 +20.88 +0.85 +27.02
Hungary 37652.53 +361.88 +0.97 +17.65
Romania 7898.57 +20.65 +0.26 +11.48
Greece 742.15 -13.46 -1.78 +15.31
Russia 1133.85 -2.90 -0.26 -1.60
South Africa 49661.97 +285.51 +0.58 +13.12
Turkey 03528.51 +620.77 +0.60 +32.49
China 3349.22 +9.57 +0.29 +7.91
India 31283.72 +1.24 +0.00 +17.49
Currencies Latest Prev Local Local
close currency currency
% change % change
in 2017
Czech Rep 25.96 25.97 +0.05 +4.04
Poland 4.31 4.31 -0.05 +2.09
Hungary 311.09 311.54 +0.14 -0.73
Romania 4.59 4.59 +0.09 -1.14
Serbia 119.05 119.10 +0.04 +3.61
Russia 57.84 57.51 -0.58 +5.92
Kazakhstan 341.05 340.28 -0.23 -2.17
Ukraine 26.66 26.60 -0.21 +1.29
South Africa 13.62 13.55 -0.52 +0.84
Kenya 103.10 103.10 -0.00 -0.71
Israel 3.54 3.53 -0.17 +8.81
Turkey 3.58 3.56 -0.40 -1.41
China 6.65 6.65 -0.00 +4.35
India 65.31 65.31 +0.00 +4.04
Brazil 3.16 3.16 -0.08 +2.83
Mexico 18.27 18.25 -0.11 +13.39
Debt Index Strip Spd Chg %Rtn Index
Sov'gn Debt EMBIG 304 -2 .02 8 03.45 1
All data taken from Reuters at 09:19 GMT.
Currency percent change calculated from the daily U.S.
close at 2130 GMT.
(Reporting by Alexander Winning and Claire Milhench, editing by
Louise Heavens)