Yahoo Finance Emmi AG Just Missed Earnings - But Analysts Have Updated Their Models
Last week saw the newest yearly earnings release from Emmi AG (VTX:EMMN), an important milestone in the company's journey to build a stronger business. It looks like the results were a bit of a negative overall. While revenues of CHF4.2b were in line with analyst predictions, statutory earnings were less than expected, missing estimates by 6.0% to hit CHF34.12 per share. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.
See our latest analysis for Emmi
Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from Emmi's five analysts is for revenues of CHF4.38b in 2023, which would reflect a credible 3.5% improvement in sales compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to grow 16% to CHF39.42. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of CHF4.35b and earnings per share (EPS) of CHF40.95 in 2023. So it looks like there's been a small decline in overall sentiment after the recent results - there's been no major change to revenue estimates, but the analysts did make a minor downgrade to their earnings per share forecasts.
It might be a surprise to learn that the consensus price target was broadly unchanged at CHF952, with the analysts clearly implying that the forecast decline in earnings is not expected to have much of an impact on valuation. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. The most optimistic Emmi analyst has a price target of CHF1,100 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at CHF770. As you can see, analysts are not all in agreement on the stock's future, but the range of estimates is still reasonably narrow, which could suggest that the outcome is not totally unpredictable.
Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. We would highlight that Emmi's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 3.5% annualised growth rate until the end of 2023 being well below the historical 4.5% p.a. growth over the last five years. Compare this against other companies (with analyst forecasts) in the industry, which are in aggregate expected to see revenue growth of 4.5% annually. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that Emmi is also expected to grow slower than other industry participants.
The Bottom Line
The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Emmi. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply revenues will perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at CHF952, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.
With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Emmi going out to 2025, and you can see them free on our platform here..
You can also see whether Emmi is carrying too much debt, and whether its balance sheet is healthy, for free on our platform here.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
Join A Paid User Research Session
You’ll receive a US$30 Amazon Gift card for 1 hour of your time while helping us build better investing tools for the individual investors like yourself. Sign up here
