Energean plc's (LON:ENOG) Intrinsic Value Is Potentially 74% Above Its Share Price

Key Insights

• Energean's estimated fair value is UK£17.20 based on 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity

• Current share price of UK£9.87 suggests Energean is potentially 43% undervalued

• Our fair value estimate is 17% higher than Energean's analyst price target of US$14.75

In this article we are going to estimate the intrinsic value of Energean plc (LON:ENOG) by projecting its future cash flows and then discounting them to today's value. One way to achieve this is by employing the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model. Don't get put off by the jargon, the math behind it is actually quite straightforward.

We would caution that there are many ways of valuing a company and, like the DCF, each technique has advantages and disadvantages in certain scenarios. For those who are keen learners of equity analysis, the Simply Wall St analysis model here may be something of interest to you.

View our latest analysis for Energean

Step By Step Through The Calculation

We're using the 2-stage growth model, which simply means we take in account two stages of company's growth. In the initial period the company may have a higher growth rate and the second stage is usually assumed to have a stable growth rate. In the first stage we need to estimate the cash flows to the business over the next ten years. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.

A DCF is all about the idea that a dollar in the future is less valuable than a dollar today, so we discount the value of these future cash flows to their estimated value in today's dollars:

10-year free cash flow (FCF) estimate

	2024	2025	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031	2032	2033
Levered FCF ($, Millions)	US$345.0m	US$806.5m	US$625.5m	US$526.9m	US$471.6m	US$439.4m	US$420.8m	US$410.5m	US$405.7m	US$404.5m
Growth Rate Estimate Source	Analyst x2	Analyst x2	Analyst x2	Est @ -15.76%	Est @ -10.50%	Est @ -6.82%	Est @ -4.24%	Est @ -2.44%	Est @ -1.18%	Est @ -0.29%
Present Value ($, Millions) Discounted @ 12%	US$307	US$638	US$440	US$330	US$263	US$218	US$185	US$161	US$142	US$126

("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = US$2.8b

We now need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all the future cash flows after this ten year period. The Gordon Growth formula is used to calculate Terminal Value at a future annual growth rate equal to the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield of 1.8%. We discount the terminal cash flows to today's value at a cost of equity of 12%.

Terminal Value (TV)= FCF₂₀₃₃ × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = US$405m× (1 + 1.8%) ÷ (12%– 1.8%) = US$3.9b

Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)¹⁰= US$3.9b÷ ( 1 + 12%)¹⁰= US$1.2b

The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the present value of the future cash flows, which in this case is US$4.0b. In the final step we divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Compared to the current share price of UK£9.9, the company appears quite good value at a 43% discount to where the stock price trades currently. Valuations are imprecise instruments though, rather like a telescope - move a few degrees and end up in a different galaxy. Do keep this in mind.

dcf

Important Assumptions

We would point out that the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate and of course the actual cash flows. You don't have to agree with these inputs, I recommend redoing the calculations yourself and playing with them. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Energean as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 12%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.942. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.

SWOT Analysis for Energean

Strength

• Earnings growth over the past year exceeded the industry.

• Debt is well covered by earnings and cashflows.

• Dividend is in the top 25% of dividend payers in the market.

Weakness

• Shareholders have been diluted in the past year.

Opportunity

• Annual earnings are forecast to grow faster than the British market.

• Trading below our estimate of fair value by more than 20%.

Threat

• Dividends are not covered by earnings and cashflows.

• Revenue is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.

Moving On:

Although the valuation of a company is important, it ideally won't be the sole piece of analysis you scrutinize for a company. The DCF model is not a perfect stock valuation tool. Preferably you'd apply different cases and assumptions and see how they would impact the company's valuation. For example, changes in the company's cost of equity or the risk free rate can significantly impact the valuation. Can we work out why the company is trading at a discount to intrinsic value? For Energean, we've compiled three important elements you should assess:

1. Risks: Case in point, we've spotted 3 warning signs for Energean you should be aware of, and 1 of them doesn't sit too well with us.

2. Future Earnings: How does ENOG's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.

3. Other High Quality Alternatives: Do you like a good all-rounder? Explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there you may be missing!

PS. The Simply Wall St app conducts a discounted cash flow valuation for every stock on the LSE every day. If you want to find the calculation for other stocks just search here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com