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Energy bill costs expected to remain at record-high levels throughout 2023

·3-min read
Households across Britain have been warned they could face an average energy bill in excess of £3,600 this winter (Steve Parsons/PA) (PA Wire)
Households across Britain have been warned they could face an average energy bill in excess of £3,600 this winter (Steve Parsons/PA) (PA Wire)

The average household energy bill is expected to hit £3,359 per year from October and stay at this rate — or higher — until the end of 2023, new analysis suggests.

This means energy bills will remain at more than two-and-a-half times their pre-crisis levels for the next 17 months.

Cornwall Insight, one of the country's most respected energy consultancies, said the price cap on energy bills, which regulates what 24 million British households pay, will hit a staggering £3,359 per year from October, rising to £3,616 in January and £3,729 from April 2023.

It will begin to fall after that, but only slowly, reaching £3,569 from July before hitting £3,470 for the last three months of 2023.

The latest price cap predictions are hundreds of pounds above previous forecasts from Cornwall Insight, but are slightly lower what another consultancy, BFY, has predicted.

In May, the government announced an energy costs support package — worth £400 per household — in response to predictions that bills would rise to £2,800 for the average household in October.

The package also promised extra support for more vulnerable households.

Last month, Cornwall Insight predicted that annual energy bills would typically rise to £3,244 from October and £3,363 from January, but circumstances have changed significantly since then, it said.

“Customers will be sadly used to these ever-increasing price cap forecasts. We have less than a month until the new price cap is announced and given the trends in the wholesale market and the concerns over Russian supply, unfortunately the only change to the prediction is likely to be up,” said Craig Lowrey, principal consultant at Cornwall Insight.

“While the rise in forecasts for October and January is a pressing concern, it is not only the level but the duration of the rises that makes these new forecasts so devastating.”

Dr Lowrey said the government support will “only scratch the surface” for households.

“While the government has pledged some support for October's energy rise, our cap forecast has increased by over £500 since the funding was proposed, and the truth is the £400 pledged will only scratch the surface of this problem.”

He warned that “tinkering with VAT and policy costs will only make a dent in bills.”

On Friday, Richard Neudegg, director of regulation at Uswitch, called for the £400 to be increased to at least £600, and for payments to vulnerable households to rise from £650 to £950.

“The government did the right thing by stepping in with wide-reaching support to try to help ease the blow. However, this support now looks like a severe under-estimation of what consumers need,” he said.

“Households need clarity to help them plan for the most expensive winter in living memory.”

Charity National Energy Action last month predicted that, should the average bill reach £3,250 per year, 8.2 million UK households, or one in three, will be in fuel poverty.

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