The EU Parliamentary Elections – Entry is not only a Fail for the Tories

It’s almost a catastrophe that Britsh voters will go to the polls to vote in this week’s EU election.

In previous years, EU parliamentary elections largely went unnoticed in the UK, but not this time around.

As the 2^nd largest democratic election in the world, even larger than the U.S Presidential Election, there’s a lot riding on this week’s election.

The rise of the populist and far-right parties has not only gathered pace but also made inroads into the corridors of power.

Across the UK, the Brexit chaos has now spilled into the EU parliamentary elections. Not only did many of the EU member states wish to avoid such a scenario, but the British government itself.

British voters are expected to yet again voice their discontent. Last month’s local elections will pale into insignificance if results go as the polls suggest.

Unlike one of the greatest political comeback stories in recent times, that of Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrisson victory over the weekend, the Tories are likely to lose and lose badly.

For a nation that is on its way out of the EU, or so the story goes, having pro-Brexit representation in Brussels may not be a bad thing. Safeguarding British interests in what could be a Brexit process that extends beyond Halloween is certainly vital.

The Populists and Far-Right

From an EU perspective, however, the sudden reappearance of an old dog, new tricks, Nigel Farage will be an alarming one.

The leader of the Brexit Party is, not only pro-Brexit but also quite outspoken. The Establishment can certainly expect some disruption and antagonistic behavior.

Would it be in the best interest of the EU to progress Britain’s departure from the EU with more haste? If the polls turn out to be right, having the Brexit party in Brussels along with the likes of Italy’s 5-Star and League, Greece’s somewhat tamed Syriza and Marine Le Pen’s National could be a mouthwatering prospect. Well, for those looking for a final curtain on the EU as it stands today.

Just this weekend, Italy deputy prime minister Salvini led a rally that included representation from 10 far-right parties.

EU President Juncker may have thought that Brexit is the EU’s biggest battle for survival.

It’s unsurprising that the European media have seized on what is likely to be the political story of the year.

Possible Outcomes

Things could go the way of the Establishment. Theresa May could deliver a deal to parliament that is ok for even the most anti-Brexit MP. European voters could decide that the day’s of anti-EU sentiment is over and that unity in the face of adversity is a better tact. One can only imagine how weakened some EU member states would be without the EU banner to fall back on…

Things could go the other way, however. Theresa May could fail to deliver a deal this week. The Tories could be punished in this week’s EU parliamentary vote.

Marine Le Pen and the clan could find voices after quite dire election results in the past. The EU could become a dysfunctioning region that may finally need to acknowledge the need for change.

If all was rosy in the EU, there would not have been the rise of the far right…

 

When

The elections take place between 23^rd May and 26^th May. It will be Britain, alongside the Netherlands that vote first. A number of member states vote on Friday and Saturday. The majority go to the polls on Sunday.

Ahead of exit polls and counted votes due out on Sunday evening, there will be plenty of noise going into the weekend.

Can Britain set the town for the rest? Nigel Farage would certainly do his best if victory is in sight…

The Pound and the EUR

For the Pound, the markets are now expecting a Brexit Party victory. It’s not a coincidence that the Pound is back down to $1.27 levels for the first time since January.

For the EUR, it’s been more resilient, but not convincingly. Back down at $1.11 levels, a return to $1.10 levels wouldn’t be completely unthinkable if the Establishment loses its voice.

This article was originally posted on FX Empire

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