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Euro net shorts rise to highest since mid-March -CFTC, Reuters data
(New (KOSDAQ: 160550.KQ - news) throughout, adds details on the contracts, analyst
comments, table; adds byline)
By Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss
NEW YORK, April 21 (Reuters) - Net (LSE: 0LN0.L - news) short positioning on the
euro increased to its largest since mid-March, according to
calculations by Reuters and Commodity Futures Trading Commission
data released on Friday, as speculators braced for the outcome
of French elections over the weekend.
The first round of France's presidential election kicks off
on Sunday, with polls suggesting the race will likely come down
to a second-round duel between independent centrist Emmanuel
Macron and Marine Le Pen (Other OTC: PENC - news) , head of the anti-European Union and
anti-immigrant National Front.
Euro's net short contracts rose to 21,649 in the week ended
April 18, from 18,956, data showed.
"Our base-case scenario for these elections is for a
euro-friendly outcome, with the final race taking place between
Macron and Le Pen," said Thomas Flury, a strategist at UBS (LSE: 0QNR.L - news) '
wealth management research in Switzerland.
"However, we note that the odds of a euro-unfriendly outcome
have risen," he added. Flury believes, however, that the euro's
downside against the dollar remains well-protected as it has
been in recent quarters."
Speculators, meanwhile, lifted bullish bets on the U.S.
dollar for a second straight week.
The value of the dollar's net long position totaled $15.34
billion, up from $15.04 billion the previous week.
The dollar has held up against the yen this week in the face
of weakening consumer spending, inflation and manufacturing
data, although it struggled against European currencies.
"The general resilience of the dollar can be attributed to
the complacency of investors who believe that the recent
disappointments in U.S. data changes nothing about the outlook
for U.S. monetary policy," said Kathy Lien, managing director of
FX strategy at BK Asset Management in New York.
CFTC data also showed that sterling net short contracts fell
to their lowest since early March.
Sterling has been well-supported this week after British
Prime Minister Theresa May surprised markets by calling for an
early parliamentary election in June.
Investors viewed the election as easing political
uncertainty and making it more likely that Britain could
maintain some kind of preferential access to the single European
market.
The Reuters calculation for the aggregate U.S. dollar
position is derived from net positions of International Monetary
Market speculators in the yen, euro, British pound, Swiss franc
and Canadian and Australian dollars.
Japanese Yen (Contracts of 12,500,000 yen)
$3.513 billion
April 18, 2017 Prior week
week
Long 45,761 43,316
Short 76,224 78,080
Net -30,463 -34,764
EURO (Contracts of 125,000 euros)
$2.904 billion
April 18, 2017 Prior week
week
Long 185,786 173,594
Short 207,435 192,550
Net -21,649 -18,956
POUND STERLING (Contracts of 62,500 pounds sterling)
$7.982 billion
April 18, 2017 Prior week
week
Long 48,348 31,871
Short 147,838 137,772
Net -99,490 -105,901
SWISS FRANC (Contracts of 125,000 Swiss francs)
$1.732 billion
April 18, 2017 Prior week
week
Long 10,830 13,107
Short 24,632 23,235
Net -13,802 -10,128
CANADIAN DOLLAR (Contracts of 100,000 Canadian dollars)
$2.486 billion
April 18, 2017 Prior week
week
Long 37,306 31,432
Short 70,558 63,766
Net -33,252 -32,334
AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR (Contracts of 100,000 Aussie dollars)
$-3.271 billion
April 18, 2017 Prior week
week
Long 70,392 76,747
Short 27,130 31,596
Net 43,262 45,151
MEXICAN PESO (Contracts of 500,000 pesos)
$-0.383 billion
April 18, 2017 Prior week
week
Long 97,027 86,813
Short 82,783 99,488
Net 14,244 -12,675
NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR (Contracts of 100,000 New Zealand dollars)
$1.057 billion
April 18, 2017 Prior week
week
Long 18,320 19,008
Short 33,326 34,161
Net -15,006 -15,153
(Reporting by Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss, Editing by G Crosse and
David Gregorio)
