Well, with Wall Street closed up, that’s all for today. Some Brits will be bracing for a trip back to the pub tomorrow, while across the pond some Americans are no doubt looking forward to a weekend of socially distanced firework fun.
Here are some of today’s highlights:
PMI data for Britain’s services sector showed a decline in the private sector may have bottomed out. The gauge came in just below the month-no-month ‘no change’ mark, suggesting the slowdown may have reached its nadir. Some experts have argued it is too pessimistic, and that output has likely been bouncing back since April.
It was a similar story for Europe’s PMI readings, although France appears to have clearly returned to growth.
In China, the services sector recorded its best monthly crisis in a decade – demonstrating the continued bounceback in the world’s second-largest economy. Stock closed at five-year highs.
European shares dropped, ending a four-day streak of gains.
In corporate news, Land Securities said it would resume its dividend payouts, Rank said it will reopen some Mecca Bingo halls from tomorrow, and Rolls-Royce confirmed it is looking at ways to raise cash.
Elsewhere, the UK won a bidding war for satellite firm OneWeb, with its takeover offer now subject to regulatory approval.
Thanks for following along – I’ll be back on Monday.
03:32 PM
Market moves
With trading closing up in Europe as I type, equities look to have had a pretty poor session – with the FTSE 100 the worst performer.
03:11 PM
Truss pours cold water on Mandelson’s WTO dreams
Mandelson - REUTERS/Toby Melville/File Photo
The Trade Secretary has rebuffed a naked plea by the Labour peer Lord Mandelson to win the Government’s backing to lead the world’s top trade body.
The Blairite peer said he would “love to” head up the World Trade Organisation after its current director-general steps down.
My colleague Lizzy Burden reports:
The 164 members of the WTO have until July 8 to nominate a replacement for Roberto Azevedo, who announced his surprise resignation in May.
In a thinly veiled swipe at the Egyptian candidate Hamid Mamdouh, a WTO veteran who has claimed he is the “engineer to fix the car” of the commerce body, Lord Mandelson said: “It requires... a heavyweight political figure who can lead the WTO rather than simply a diplomat or a technician – a real believer in trade liberalisation.
“If that sounds like a job application then I make no apology for that – it is. I’d love to do the job but of course that requires the nomination by my own government in the first place.”
However, asked whether the Government would be furthering Lord Mandelson’s ambitions, Liz Truss told the Policy Exchange webinar: “The UK is yet to decide our position on the WTO director-general but... any successful candidate would essentially need the support of the US, China and the EU so as well as being a political heavy-hitter and someone who is a champion of the free trade agenda, they do need to command the support of all those blocs.”
The appointment is by consensus among the WTO’s members. Robert Lighthizer, the US trade representative, vowed last month to veto anyone in whom he detected a “whiff of anti-Americanism”.
Lord Mandelson was previously president of the Great Britain China Centre and told the Guardian last year that the US was “fomenting hysteria” about the Chinese tech company Huawei “because [US President Donald Trump] is driving a political and commercial agenda against China”.
You can watch an interview with Mr Mamdouh here from broadcaster Econ Films’ CoronaNomics programme
02:46 PM
Rolls-Royce confirms it is looking at ways to strengthen balance sheet
Following Bloomberg’s report (see 3:10pm update), Roll-Royce has issued a press statement. It says:
Rolls-Royce Holdings plc notes the recent press speculation. We confirm we are in the early stages of reviewing a range of potential options to strengthen our balance sheet and position ourselves for the recovery following Covid-19. However, no decisions have been made. Our current financial position and liquidity remain strong. A further announcement will be made if and when appropriate.
Its shares have taken a knock following the news, and are down about 9pc.
02:32 PM
Government sets out air bridge plans
The Government (after quite some delay) has set out the list of countries in its “travel corridor” programme.
Its guidance says:
You do not have to self-isolate on arrival in England if these are the only places you have been to or stopped in during the previous 14 days.
Gov
Air Bridges (international travel corridors) will allow travel to England without 14-day quarantine from 10 July from the countries & territories in this OFFICIAL list I've published here 👇https://t.co/5gmIVSBK00
— Rt Hon Grant Shapps MP (@grantshapps) July 3, 2020
Rolls-Royce, the aerospace engineering company, is exploring options to raise money to help it get through Covid-19, Bloomberg reports.
The news service says:
The London-based company is in the early stages of examining possibilities including selling shares and divesting assets, according to the people, who asked not to be identified because the information is private. Rolls-Royce’s ITP Aero unit is one potential disposal being studied, the people said.
Rolls-Royce could seek about £1.5bn to £2bn if it decides to proceed with an equity offering, the people said. It hasn’t discussed precise figures and details could change, they said.
01:29 PM
Unemployment nightmare to worsen after 12,000 jobs lost in a week
Job centre
Britain could face an even bigger unemployment crisis than first feared when the taxpayer-funded furlough scheme ends in October following a raft of job losses this week, experts have warned.
My colleague Russ Lynch reports:
Unemployment is expected to peak at a record 3.3m this year, according to The Centre for Economics and Business Research (CEBR) - but chief executive Doug McWilliams warned this could get far higher still amid a growing litany of lay-offs.
More than 12,000 job losses have been announced this week alone by a host of major employers including aerospace titan Airbus and Upper Crust sandwich chain owner SSP.
Chancellor Rishi Sunak is due to set out plans on securing the recovery next week, but Boris Johnson has played down the chances of the furlough scheme that has protected 9.3m jobs being extended beyond October.
Mr McWilliams said the jobs carnage - yet to be reflected in official figures - was “like a fire in the wind” despite the temporary respite offered by state support.
He said: “What we don’t know is what happens after [furlough ends]. If there are job losses and companies fail and there is quite a long period of nothing happening it will all unwind pretty damn quickly."
Airlines make opening arguments against quarantine
Lawyers for British Airways, Ryanair and easyJet have made their opening arguments in a High Court challenge to the Government’s controversial 14-day quarantine rules.
The airlines, which grounded planes due to the pandemic, criticised the quarantine policy, saying it dealt a catastrophic blow to the industry's hopes of recovery in the summer, and that they had not been consulted on the move. They are seeking a judicial review of the rules.
They also queried their scientific basis.
Tom Hickman, representing the airlines, contrasted the blanket quarantine policy with the targeted restrictions to travel around northern Italy when it was an early epicentre of the pandemic.
“The fact that (travellers) are entering the UK from a COVID-19 hotspot could provide some justification, but the mere fact that they are entering the UK cannot,” he told the court.
“The measures as a whole lack rational connection to the objective of reducing the overall incidence of COVID-19 in the UK.”
In documents released ahead of the case, government lawyers said there was no duty to consult airlines on the policy, and that the government had taken scientific advice to inform its response.
12:25 PM
Tilbury confirms explosion
The Port of Tilbury has confirmed an explosion has occured at a grain silo (see 11:21am post). It said the cause of the explosion will be investigated (as you might hope). Nobody has been injured.
Crews were called to an incident at Tilbury Docks today at 9.55am.
On arrival, firefighters found a grain in a silo was on fire. Crews made sure the fire was under control but the grain is still smouldering.
Two crews, from Grays and Orsett, remain at the scene and are working with site managers to remove the unaffected grain from the silo so it does not ignite.
12:15 PM
Poll: Most Brits won’t head back to the pubs straight away
For all the talk of a ‘Super Saturday’ as British pubs reopen their doors, most people will continue avoiding them, polling suggests.
My colleague Tom Rees reports:
Pubs and restaurants could face months of dire trading with less than a fifth of Britons planning to immediately return when they reopen.
Consumers ranked eating and drinking out as their highest priority activity after lockdown, but only two in five planned to return before August and less than a fifth immediately, according to new polling by RBC Capital Markets.
The bank’s survey also found that more than half of drinkers and diners expected to go less often than they did before Covid-19 struck, piling pressure on the struggling industry.
Old Mutual names Iain Williamson as chief executive
South African insurer and investment manager Old Mutual has named Iain Williamson, formerly its chief financial officer, as its new chief executive. He has been acting CEO since last year.
Chair Trevor Manuel said:
We are delighted at Iain's appointment. Over the last year, acting as interim CEO, he has worked to steer Old Mutual through some significant leadership and operational challenges.
11:39 AM
Full report: Economy shows signs of recovery
Businesses - Yui Mok/PA Wire
My colleague Tim Wallace has a full report on this morning’s PMI figures. he writes:
A quarter of services companies reported that their order books are growing once more, with the industry starting to re-open.
However, travel and leisure companies remain in the doldrums, with much of the reopening only happening into July, and the future for holidaymakers and business travellers still uncertain.
Intu chief executive Matthew Roberts has stepped down, a week after the shopping-centre operator fell into administration, Sky News reports.
It says:
Sky News has learnt that KPMG, which is handling Intu's administration, informed the company's employees on Friday that Matthew Roberts had decided to leave the role he had held since April last year.
The announcement about Mr Roberts’ exit comes as the administrators retains key Intu operational staff to ensure the continued smooth running of its 17 UK shopping centres, which include the Trafford Centre in Manchester and Lakeside in Essex.
A “major incident” has occurred at the grain terminal of the Tilbury port in Essex, according to a spokesperson for the port. No injuries have been reported, and emergency services are at the scene.
Essex Fire and Rescue Service: "Crews were called to an incident at Tilbury Grain Terminal today at 9.55am." We're told two appliances from Grays are there, as well as one from Orsett and one from Corringham.
Howard Davies, the chairman of Royal Bank of Scotland, has warned British banks are “not investible” after pulling their dividends in the face of Covid-19.
Reuters reports:
Davies told a City & Financial webinar on Friday that regulators needed to rethink their capital framework for lenders by the autumn, adding that banks could not suspend payouts to investors indefinitely.
“It’s probably fair to say the banking sector is not investible because when people try to do the models about what banks are worth they can’t plug in any numbers for cash out.”
Starling Chief Executive Anne Boden, meanwhile, said banks would need government support in handling an expected spike in unpaid state-backed business loans in the coming months.
With nearly three hours of trading out the way, European markets have shed their early gains and are now in the red, with the FTSE 100 the biggest faller despite a weakening pound.
09:31 AM
UK wins auction for OneWeb
The UK’s bid to buy OneWeb has won at an auction in New York, The Telegraph can reveal.
My colleague Matthew Field reports:
Britain had been bidding for OneWeb, the collapsed low-orbit satellite company it hopes will build a constellation to rival that of the EU’s Galileo, along with backing from Indian telecoms billionaire Sunil Mittal’s Bharti Enterprises.
Sources say the UK bid won last night and an announcement could come as soon as midday.
The UK was facing a bidding war against Canadian firm Telesat, backed by the Canadian government.
Property firm Land Securities collected only 60pc of rent due at the end of June, but said there were signs that office occupancy was recovering as lockdown restrictions lift.
My colleague Simon Foy reports:
The FTSE 100 firm also said it will resume dividend payments following its half-year results in November.
Rent collections in June came in at £65m, well below the £109m it expected when deferrals and concessions were taken into account.
Three-quarters of rent due for the March quarter had now been received, LandSec added.
Meanwhile there was a significant disparity between the amount collected from office and retail clients in June, with 81pc of office occupants paying but only 29pc of retail.
However, there were “encouraging” levels of footfall in its centres over the past month.
It’s fair to say purchasing managers’ index data has been controversial over recent months – prompting wild misinterpretation (and invoking the ire of the usually docile economics wing of Twitter).
Pantheon Macroeconomics’ Samuel Tombs has been one of the gauge’s fiercest critics. Labelling it a “Pretty meaningless indicator right now”, he wrote:
The composite PMI neither is a useful indicator of month-to-month growth in GDP nor its level at present. The sub-50 reading technically implies that output was lower in June in May. But that is improbable, given that lockdown rules were loosened further in June and a wide variety of other data sources, from energy consumption to road usage, indicate that activity recovered.
Equally, it’s implausible that the level of GDP, or its year-over-year growth rate, has nearly reached pre-virus levels; the composite PMI now is much closer to its pre-virus level, 53.0 in February, than its record low of 13.8 in April. Its suggestion that year-over-year growth in GDP has recovered to about –2pc doesn’t sit right, given that a large swathe of services business remained mothballed in June and schools were shut for most pupils. Indeed, the ONS’ latest fortnightly Business Impact of Covid-19 survey, released yesterday, showed that the proportion of businesses trading rose only to 86pc in the first two weeks of June, from 84pc between May 18 and 31.
Those problems are inherent in the survey, Mr Tombs continues:
The main problem with the PMI is that some firms state whether output is above or below recent norms or just give a general sense of overall business conditions, rather than mechanically reporting whether output is higher or lower than in the previous month. The proportion of incorrect responders isn’t stable over time, making it impossible to get a reliable read on how the economy is faring from the PMI alone.
Based on a bottom-up analysis of the components of GDP, we currently look for month-to-month increases of about 6.0pc in both May and June, which would leave it around 15pc below its pre-Covid peak in June, though our numbers will shift a little as we receive more data.
Pantheon Macroeconomics - Pantheon Macroeconomics
08:52 AM
Reaction: Services emerges from the shadows’
Commenting on today’s PMI data, Duncan Brock – group director at the Chartered Institute of Procurement & Supply, which helped gather the data – said:
A cessation in some lockdown policies enabled the services sector to emerge tentatively from the shadows last month and reclaim some normality, with the PMI leaping to a fourmonth high.
Though the sector remained in overall contraction territory, the re-opening of businesses premises unclogged levels of dampened demand and created hope that the worst impact of the pandemic could be over. However, as consumers remain fairly cautious, tightening purse strings, the highest levels of business optimism in four months may be a little premature.
Pipelines of new work were still severely weakened for the fourth consecutive month, and export orders were still in dire straits. With imposed travel and logistics restrictions disrupting supply chains overseas clients shied away from placing orders as the pandemic’s presence is still felt.
On employment, he added:
As the sector regains some momentum, employment levels amongst services personnel remain deeply concerning. Businesses securing their premises to ensure covid safety for staff and customers means operating costs are rising.
Some firms are resorting to heavy discounting, others accelerating innovative solutions to change their operating model to stay in business. For others, the decision to shed jobs may be the only solution as the fight for survival continues and the UK economy grits its teeth for the months ahead.
UK PMI at 47.7 in June. Taken at face value it means activity is still falling. As with EZ, it's likely to only be a mega-rough indicator of anything right now. pic.twitter.com/r3H6N9Q8Jb
June data continued to signal a turnaround in business conditions across the UK service sector. The headline seasonally adjusted final IHS Markit/CIPS UK Services PMI Business Activity Index posted 47.1 in June, up sharply from 29.0 in May and the highest for four months. This compared with the earlier 'flash' figure of 47.0 in June. As a result, the latest reading was well above April's survey-record low (13.4), but still under the neutral 50.0 threshold.
Around 33pc of the survey panel reported a drop in business activity during June, while 28pc signalled an expansion. The proportion of service providers experiencing a fall in business activity has eased sharply from 54pc in May and 79pc in April.
Here are some key points from its report:
Survey respondents again cited highly subdued demand and disruptions related to the pandemic
Latest data signalled the slowest fall in new work since the downturn began in March
Export sales continue to decrease at a steeper rate than overall new business volumes
Signs of excess capacity persisted in June, as indicated by another steep reduction in backlogs of work
Cutbacks to staffing numbers were reported again in June, although the rate of job shedding eased to its least marked since the start of the downturn
IHS Markit
Tim Moore, IHS Markit’s economics director, said:
June data highlights that the worst phase of the service sector downturn has passed as more businesses start to reopen and adapt their operations to meet social distancing requirements...
Encouragingly, more than one-in-four service providers reported an expansion of new business during June, which was commonly attributed to pent up demand and the phased restart of the UK economy. However, lockdown measures continued to hold back travel and leisure, while companies across all main categories of service activity commented on subdued underlying business and consumer spending in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic.
08:32 AM
UK services PMI 47.1, composite 47.7
Just in: the UK’s services and composite PMIs both came in slightly higher than the flash reading, at 47.1 and 47.7 respectively – indicating a continued overall fall in activity.
08:23 AM
Coming up: Final reading UK services and composite PMIs
We’ll get the final PMI reading for the UK’s services sector, as well as the composite figures, at half past. As usual, expectations are for readings in line with the ‘flash’ numbers we got last month:
Services: 47
Composite: 47.6
As a reminder, the final manufacturing figures came in bang in line line with the flash reading, at 50.1.
08:12 AM
Eurozone composite PMI at 48.5
As might be expected given this morning’s figures, the overall PMI readings for the eurozone both came in slightly below the ‘no change’ threshold:
Services: 48.3
Composite: 48.5
IHS Markit, which gathered the data, said:
Despite the sharp improvement since May, the index was nonetheless indicative of challenging economic conditions across the region. Both manufacturing output and service sector activity continued to fall according to the latest data as the coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic again weighed on wider economic activity.
IHS Markit - IHS Markit
08:04 AM
French activity rises as Germany remains in doldrums
The final PMI readings for France and Germany are in. We had a good idea of how these would look after getting ‘flash’ readings last month, but the figures have actually come out slightly higher across the board.
The main themes remain the same, however. France’s private sector appears to have begun a comeback, with PMI readings above 50 across the board indicating a rise in activity compared to May.
In Germany, the indices held beneath the 50 ‘no-change’ threshold, suggesting – although it seems improbable – that output in Europe’s biggest economy continued to drop last month despite easing lockdown measures.
Either way, the number show only a minor change from a very low starting point.
07:56 AM
Italian activity continues to fall
Just in: Italy’s services PMI reading came up short of the ‘no change’ threshold with a reading of 46.4. That left the composite gauge at 47.6, indicating the country’s private sector suffered a continued, albeit mild, slowdown last month.
IHS Markit, which gathered the data, said:
The Italian service sector continued to contract during June, although the downturn eased markedly as restrictions to combat the coronavirus disease 2019 (Covid-19) pandemic were loosened and further parts of the economy reopened. Incoming new business declined further, with the reduction remaining sharp despite easing. Amid muted demand conditions, service providers reduced staff numbers markedly.
07:40 AM
Chinese stocks close at five-year high
In China, the CSI 300 composite index – which contains the top stock stocks from Shanghai and Shenzhen – has closed at its higher level since 2015 (when growth fears sparked a major sell-off).
07:26 AM
Markets flat
European markets are trading flat this morning.
Bloomberg TV - Bloomberg TV
07:24 AM
Spain PMIs: More details
IHS Markit, which gathered the PMI data, said:
There was a return to growth of Spain’s services economy during June following the unprecedented declines in activity seen earlier in the quarter. Growth was however only marginal as the global coronavirus disease pandemic continued to weigh heavily on economic activity, despite the easing of lockdown restrictions designed to limit the spread of the virus.
Here are some key points:
As firms reopened, several staff returned to work from furlough, which led to a sharp rise in overall operating expenses
Growth was marginal and followed on from a period of unprecedented contraction in service sector activity
The lack of meaningful growth in new work meant firms were able to comfortably keep on top of workloads
There was another marked improvement in confidence during June
IHS Markit
IHS Markit’s economics director, Paul Smith, added:
Spain’s services economy stabilised during June, with output and new work both returning to growth following the unprecedented collapse seen earlier in the quarter.
However, despite the clear improvement in the PMI numbers – in line with the easing of lockdown measures and the broad reopening of economic activities – in the context of previous data, June’s survey indicates a muted recovery so far. Firms signalled that customer numbers remain well down and they are operating with a considerable degree of excess capacity at their units.
07:18 AM
Spain PMI points to bottoming out
Just in: Spain’s services-sector purchasing managers’ index reading for June are in – and it’s a beat. A reading of 50.2 comes in just above to 50 ‘no change’ mark, and suggest that – after months of falls – activity bottomed out in June.
The composite reading – a weighted combination of services and manufacturing activity – came in at 49.7, indicated a narrow overall contraction.
07:03 AM
Rank to reopen Mecca Bingo halls from tomorrow
Mecca Bingo - ANDY BUCHANAN/AFP/Getty Images
Mecca Bingo halls across England will reopen their doors from tomorrow in line with updated Government guidance, according to owner Rank Group.
In an update to the City this morning, the FTSE 250 company said:
Our spacious Mecca venues will have extensive social distancing measures and signage; colleague-controlled entry and exit; reconfigured service points to account for social distancing and frequent and extensive cleaning of all surfaces, including tables and machines. Hand sanitiser will be available to customers prior to entry and throughout the venue.
It will initially open 35 venues in England, with a further 30 to open during July and August. Its locations and Scotland and Wales will open “when permitted”.
Rank said it is working with the Betting and Gambling Council to secure a date at which it can reopen its Grosvenor casino estate. Its Enracha chain in Spain are now all open once more.
It said operating profit for the year to the end of June is expected to be at the lower end of its previously-provided £48m to £58m guidance range.
Shore Capital’s Greg Johnson said Rank should be able to break even on earnings before interest, taxation, depreciation and amortisation even with the income from its venues at half historic levels. He added:
Combined with the strength of the balance sheet heading into the crisis Rank appears very much in the post Covid ‘survivor camp”’
06:46 AM
Chinese services activity jumps
Beijing - ROMAN PILIPEY/EPA-EFE/Shutterstock
Activity in China’s services sector jump the most in over a decade, according to the latest reading from Caixin’s purchasing managers’ index.
The gauge climbed from 55 in May to 58.4 in June – its highest reading since April 2010 – in a sign of continued strengthening in the world’s second-biggest economy. A score above 50 indicates a rise in activity.
Significantly, new export business rose for the first time since January, in a sign of a broader comeback.
06:41 AM
Alison Rose: ‘Getting back to work will be a very slow process’
Alison Rose
RBS chief executive Alison Rose has said getting businesses back to work is going to be a “very slow process”.
Speaking on BBC Radio 4's Today programme, Ms Rose also said there's no consensus on what the shape of the recovery will be and she stressed that the reopening must be done in a “safe way”.
06:19 AM
Agenda: Stocks set to open flat
Good morning. European equities are set to open flat as global stocks are poised to cap their best week in a month.
Despite new cases hitting record highs in parts of the US, investors have been encouraged by improving economic data, including yesterday's June job report.
US markets are closed today for the Independence Day public holiday.
5 things to start your day
1) Abu Dhabi wealth fund joins bid for bankrupt satellite firm OneWeb: The UK is in late discussions with Abu Dhabi’s Mubadala, one of the oil-rich Gulf nation’s biggest funds, about joining the consortium bidding for OneWeb.
2) Virus warning over record US jobs recovery: The world’s biggest economy shed more than 20m jobs in April at the height of the lockdown but the US has now regained a third of those workers in just two months after 2.7m jobs were added in May - suggesting the country has begun a rapid "V-shaped" recovery.
4) Where the jobs axe is falling across the UK: Companies across Britain have seen their revenues decimated by the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic. In total, 108,737 jobs have been lost or are at risk. This does not include a number of companies that have warned of redundancies but have yet to put a figure on them.
5) Steel company Celsa has been granted an emergency loan by the Government in what is believed to be the first deal under the “Project Birch” programme to support strategically important businesses. Celsa, which has 1,600 staff in the UK, has received a £30m bailout.
What happened overnight
Hong Kong stocks finished the morning on a strong note, building on the previous day's rally, following a forecast-beating US jobs report. The Hang Seng Index rose 0.84pc, or 211.89 points, to 25,336.08.
Tokyo finished the morning 0.3pc higher and Shanghai jumped more than 1pc. Sydney and Seoul were both 0.6pc higher, Taipei put on 0.7pc and Wellington gained 0.8pc. There were also advances in Singapore and Jakarta, though Manila edged slightly lower.
China's services sector expanded at the fastest pace in over a decade in June as the easing of lockdown measures revised consumer demand, a private survey showed on Friday, though companies continued to shed jobs.
The Caixin/Markit services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rose to 58.4, the highest reading since April 2010, from May's 55.0, pulling further away from the trough hit in February.
Coming up today
Full-year: Fuller Smith & Turner
Economics: Consumer confidence (UK), services PMI final reading (UK, eurozone), Caixin services PMI (China), US public holiday (Independence Day)
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