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European Equities: Business Confidence to Play 2nd Fiddle to Trump…

Bob Mason

Economic Calendar:

Monday, 25th November 2019

  • German IFO Business Expectations / Current Assesment / Business Climate (Nov)

Tuesday, 26th November 2019

  • GfK German Consumer Climate (Dec)

Wednesday, 27th November 2019

  • France Jobseekers Total

Thursday, 28th November 2019

  • Spanish CPI (YoY) (Nov) Prelim
  • Spanish HICP (YoY) (Nov) Prelim
  • German CPI (MoM) (Nov) Prelim

Friday, 29th November 2019

  • German Retail Sales m/m (Oct)
  • French Consumer Spending (MoM) (Oct)
  • French CPI & HICP m/m (Oct) Prelim
  • French GDP (QoQ) (Q3)
  • German Unemployment Change (Nov)
  • German Unemployment Rate (Nov)
  • Italian CPI (MoM) (Nov) Prelim
  • Eurozone CPI (YoY) (Nov) Prelim
  • Eurozone Unemployment Rate (Oct)

The Majors

European equities found much-needed support at the end of the week, with the EuroStoxx600 rising by 0.44% to lead the way. The DAX30 and CAC40 both saw a more modest gain of 0.20% each.

Economic data and positive commentary from the U.S on trade provided much-needed support on the day.

On Friday, Trump announced that the U.S and China were getting close to a phase 1 trade agreement, suggesting that tensions had eased.

The upside was limited, however, as the Senate and House of Representatives had passed HK Bills to protect the rights of HK protestors. Trump has yet to sign or veto the Bills at the time of writing.

The Stats

It was a busy day on the Eurozone economic calendar on Friday. Key stats included prelim November private sector PMI numbers out of France, Germany, and the Eurozone.

France’s service sector PMI  held steady at 52.9, while the manufacturing PMI rose from 50.7 to 51.6, leading to a rise in the composite from 52.6 to 52.7.

From Germany, the manufacturing PMI rose from 42.1 to 43.8, while the services PMI slipped from 51.6 to 51.3. The pickup in manufacturing sector activity contributed to a rise in the composite from 48.9 to 49.2.

For the Eurozone, the manufacturing PMI rose from 45.9 to 46.6, while the services PMI fell from 52.2 to 51.5. The mixed results left the composite PMI down from 50.6 to 50.3.

According to the Eurozone’s composite PMI,

  • The composite PMI signaled the 2nd smallest expansion of output across the private sector since July 2013.
  • Weak output reflected a 3rd consecutive monthly decline in new orders for goods and services.
  • The ongoing decline represented the worst spell of demand since mid-2013.
  • Backlogs fell for an 11th consecutive month, with the decline in November one of the steepest seen in the last 5-years.
  • Expectations about future output remained well below levels seen earlier in the year. Geopolitical uncertainty including Brexit, trade wars and auto tariffs weighed along with concerns over slowing demand.
  • Employment growth slowed for a 5th consecutive month, down to its lowest since January 2015.
  • Despite the weaker optimism, sentiment did rise to the highest level in 4-months.

Muted Impact

The PMIs provided little support for the DAX, however, which dipped into the red before finding support later in the session.

2nd estimate GDP numbers out of Germany for the 3rd quarter had a muted impact, with the numbers in line with 1st estimates.

U.S Stats Market Positive

From the U.S, a pickup in private sector activity provided further support to the majors late in the day. The manufacturing PMI rose from 51.3 to 52.2, with the services PMI rising from 50.6 to 51.6 in November.

The Market Movers

For the DAX: It was a bullish day for the auto sector, as the markets responded to Trump’s positive comments. Daimler led the way on the DAX30, rallying by 1.98%, with Continental, BMW and Volkswagen also found strong support. The trio rose by 0.73%, 0.61%, and 0.48% respectively.

It was also a positive day for the banks. Deutsche Bank rose by 0.35%, with Commerzbank up by 1.59%.

From the CAC, it was a positive day for the banks. Soc Gen led the way, rallying by 1.45%. BNP Paribas and Credit Agricole saw more modest gains of 0.10% and 0.68% respectively.

Positive updates on trade also provided support to French Autos. Peugeot rose by 0.36%, with Renault up by 1.19% on the day.

On the VIX Index

The VIX fell by 6.02% on Friday. Reversing a 2.74% rise from Thursday, the VIX ended the day at 12.3.

A pickup in risk appetite weighed on the VIX, as economic data out of the U.S and positive updates on trade led to a rise in the U.S equity markets.

The Day Ahead

It’s a relatively busy day ahead on the Eurozone economic calendar. Key stats due out of the Eurozone Germany’s IFO Business Climate Index, Business Expectations and Current Assesmentfigures for November…

We can expect the numbers to provide direction in the early part of the session.

Outside of the numbers, expect updates from Beijing and Washington on trade to have a greater influence on the day.

There was plenty of uncertainty over the weekend on whether Trump would sign or veto the HK Bill, with Trump reportedly saying that he might veto the Bill.

This could be the defining moment in the week.

In the futures market, at the time of writing, the Dow was up by 48 points.

This article was originally posted on FX Empire

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