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Even though Jet2 (LON:JET2) has lost UK£151m market cap in last 7 days, shareholders are still up 86% over 5 years

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It hasn't been the best quarter for Jet2 plc (LON:JET2) shareholders, since the share price has fallen 22% in that time. But that doesn't change the fact that the returns over the last five years have been pleasing. After all, the share price is up a market-beating 81% in that time.

In light of the stock dropping 6.0% in the past week, we want to investigate the longer term story, and see if fundamentals have been the driver of the company's positive five-year return.

View our latest analysis for Jet2

Because Jet2 made a loss in the last twelve months, we think the market is probably more focussed on revenue and revenue growth, at least for now. Generally speaking, companies without profits are expected to grow revenue every year, and at a good clip. That's because it's hard to be confident a company will be sustainable if revenue growth is negligible, and it never makes a profit.

Over the last half decade Jet2's revenue has actually been trending down at about 10% per year. Despite the lack of revenue growth, the stock has returned a respectable 13%, compound, over that time. To us that suggests that there probably isn't a lot of correlation between the past revenue performance and the share price, but a closer look at analyst forecasts and the bottom line may well explain a lot.

The company's revenue and earnings (over time) are depicted in the image below (click to see the exact numbers).

earnings-and-revenue-growth
earnings-and-revenue-growth

We're pleased to report that the CEO is remunerated more modestly than most CEOs at similarly capitalized companies. But while CEO remuneration is always worth checking, the really important question is whether the company can grow earnings going forward. So it makes a lot of sense to check out what analysts think Jet2 will earn in the future (free profit forecasts).

What about the Total Shareholder Return (TSR)?

We'd be remiss not to mention the difference between Jet2's total shareholder return (TSR) and its share price return. The TSR is a return calculation that accounts for the value of cash dividends (assuming that any dividend received was reinvested) and the calculated value of any discounted capital raisings and spin-offs. Dividends have been really beneficial for Jet2 shareholders, and that cash payout contributed to why its TSR of 86%, over the last 5 years, is better than the share price return.

A Different Perspective

We regret to report that Jet2 shareholders are down 22% for the year. Unfortunately, that's worse than the broader market decline of 0.5%. However, it could simply be that the share price has been impacted by broader market jitters. It might be worth keeping an eye on the fundamentals, in case there's a good opportunity. Longer term investors wouldn't be so upset, since they would have made 13%, each year, over five years. If the fundamental data continues to indicate long term sustainable growth, the current sell-off could be an opportunity worth considering. It's always interesting to track share price performance over the longer term. But to understand Jet2 better, we need to consider many other factors. Case in point: We've spotted 1 warning sign for Jet2 you should be aware of.

If you are like me, then you will not want to miss this free list of growing companies that insiders are buying.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on GB exchanges.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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