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Exact Sciences (EXAS) Down 39.7% Since Last Earnings Report: Can It Rebound?

Zacks Equity Research

It has been about a month since the last earnings report for Exact Sciences (EXAS). Shares have lost about 39.7% in that time frame, underperforming the S&P 500.

Will the recent negative trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Exact Sciences due for a breakout? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at the most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important catalysts.

Exact Sciences Registers Strong Q3 Revenues On Robust Cologuard Volume

Exact Sciences’ third quarter 2019 net loss came in at 31 cents per share, narrower than the year-ago loss of 37 cents as well as the Zacks Consensus Estimate of loss of 41 cents.

Revenues came in at $218.8 million, a 85% surge from the year-ago period.

Cologuard test volume was 456,000, up 89% year- over year.

In the third quarter, estimated Cologuard market share, including the expanded label to average risk Americans ages 45-49 years old, was 5.2%.

However, Average Cologuard recognized revenue per test was $479 a drop of $13 from the year-ago recognized revenue per test. On the other hand, average Cologuard cost per test of $114, reported an increase of $10 per test.

Gross margin in the third quarter expanded 130 basis points (bps) to 76%. However, the company incurred loss from operations of $35.7 million in the quarter compared to year-ago loss of $40.9 million.

Outlook

Excluding the impact of the Genomic Health consolidation, the company anticipates revenue of $802-$810 million during 2019. The company's revenue guidance does not include the impact of the pending combination with Genomic Health.

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How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?

In the past month, investors have witnessed a downward trend in estimates review. The consensus estimate has shifted -206.55% due to these changes.

VGM Scores

At this time, Exact Sciences has a poor Growth Score of F, however its Momentum Score is doing a bit better with a D. Following the exact same course, the stock was allocated a grade of D on the value side, putting it in the bottom 40% for this investment strategy.

Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of F. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.

Outlook

Estimates have been broadly trending downward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions indicates a downward shift. Notably, Exact Sciences has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We expect an in-line return from the stock in the next few months.


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