Yahoo Finance Exelixis, Inc. Earnings Missed Analyst Estimates: Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting Now
As you might know, Exelixis, Inc. (NASDAQ:EXEL) last week released its latest quarterly, and things did not turn out so great for shareholders. Results showed a clear earnings miss, with US$425m revenue coming in 7.7% lower than what the analystsexpected. Statutory earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.12 missed the mark badly, arriving some 50% below what was expected. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.
See our latest analysis for Exelixis
Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from Exelixis' 21 analysts is for revenues of US$1.89b in 2024. This reflects a modest 2.3% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to shoot up 64% to US$1.16. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$1.91b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$1.25 in 2024. The analysts seem to have become a little more negative on the business after the latest results, given the minor downgrade to their earnings per share numbers for next year.
It might be a surprise to learn that the consensus price target was broadly unchanged at US$26.54, with the analysts clearly implying that the forecast decline in earnings is not expected to have much of an impact on valuation. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. There are some variant perceptions on Exelixis, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$32.35 and the most bearish at US$17.00 per share. These price targets show that analysts do have some differing views on the business, but the estimates do not vary enough to suggest to us that some are betting on wild success or utter failure.
One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Exelixis' revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2024 expected to display 3.1% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 17% over the past five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 18% per year. So it's pretty clear that, while revenue growth is expected to slow down, the wider industry is also expected to grow faster than Exelixis.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that Exelixis' revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.
With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Exelixis. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Exelixis going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here..
We don't want to rain on the parade too much, but we did also find 1 warning sign for Exelixis that you need to be mindful of.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
