"Extraordinary" for BoE to mull rate hike as economy struggles, BCC says
* UK business activity holds up in Q3 but still muted: BCC (Shenzhen: 002455.SZ - news)
* Business group says "extraordinary" for BoE (Shenzhen: 000725.SZ - news) to plan rate
hike
* Pay pressures weak, investment intentions muted
* Economists see Nov rate hike, but warn BoE risks policy
error
(Adds graphic, reaction, bullet points)
By Andy Bruce
LONDON, Oct (Shenzhen: 000069.SZ - news) 13 (Reuters) - Britain's economy shows little
sign of improving on lacklustre growth and it seems
"extraordinary" that the Bank of England is considering raising
interest rates, the British Chambers of Commerce said on Friday.
The BCC's Quarterly Economic Survey of businesses, the
largest of its kind, said sales at services firms that make up
the bulk of the economy were steady in the third quarter.
But there was little pick-up in pay pressures or investment,
both of which the BoE expects to rise markedly next year.
Overall the BCC described the survey as "uninspiring", with
political uncertainty, currency fluctuations and Brexit clearly
affecting British businesses.
Despite confounding forecasts that the 2016 vote to leave
the European Union would lead to a sudden slowdown, Britain's
economy has struggled this year, posting its worst first-half
performance since 2012.
The BCC said price pressures in companies, while high
historically, looked likely to peak soon.
"Against this backdrop, it seems extraordinary that the Bank
of England are considering raising interest rates," said Suren
Thiru, BCC head of economics.
In September the BoE said interest rates would probably rise
"in the coming months" if the economy continued to grow and
price pressures kept building.
INFLATION
The BCC survey suggested that business activity was probably
strong enough to absorb slack in the economy - one of the BoE's
markers for raising rates soon, JPMorgan (LSE: JPIU.L - news) economist Allan Monks
said in a research note.
"Another marker, however, was to see underlying inflation
pressures building. But the pay settlements reading of the BCC
remained close to a record low in (the third quarter)," Monks
added.
A majority of economists polled by Reuters think the BoE
will move at its next meeting in November - but most also said
it would be a mistake to act now.
Unlike the larger services sector, manufacturers enjoyed
both better domestic and export sales over the past three
months, the BCC said.
While gauges of confidence in turnover and profitability
stood at their highest levels since 2015, the survey pointed to
only a marginal improvement in manufacturers' investment
intentions.
A slightly larger proportion of manufacturers said they
expected to raise prices, but this was mostly down to the cost
of raw materials rather than pressure from pay settlements.
In the services sector, a net 15 percent of firms reported
that pay was putting pressure on prices - up just a percentage
point from the five-year low struck in the second quarter.
Other surveys, including one from the BoE's regional
advisers, have pointed to similar weakness in corporate pay
intentions.
(Editing by Gareth Jones)