Are Fears Of A Post-Brexit Recession Over?

The short answer is: no.

No, these GDP figures , released by the Office for National Statistics don't tell us whether the UK is likely to face a post-Brexit recession. No: they don't tell us how damaged the economy has, or hasn't been by the referendum.

After all, the vast majority of the ONS numbers came from before the vote itself on June 23. Moreover, the first estimate of GDP numbers is always, necessarily, a bit of a stab in the dark.

And, most importantly, official statistics take some time to collect and publish - so it won't be until the end of next January that we'll learn whether the UK has indeed fallen into recession.

But what the numbers do at least show is that in the quarter ahead of the vote, national income was stronger than many had anticipated. They show that investment didn't fall off the edge of a cliff as the poll approached. They show that the manufacturing sector actually expanded at its fastest rate in 17 years.

In other words, they hardly bespeak an economy in deep crisis - nor does the performance of the stock market (which has risen sharply since the vote) or a few other measures, including the Bank of England's own agents' reports.

Though a few other pieces of data, including a PMI survey and consumer confidence numbers from GfK (Swiss: GFK.SW - news) , have suggested a dip in activity.

But the truth is economic figures rarely tell the real story until many months later. That was what happened back in 2008 (not that this is necessarily comparable), when the true scale of the slump only emerged some time after it had actually happened.

That leaves policymakers facing a problem: if the economy is indeed weakening, they need to respond.

Next (Other OTC: NXGH - news) week the Bank is expected to cut interest rates and possibly even give the go-ahead to more quantitative easing. But it will have to do so on the back of its own economic forecasts than on the basis of much statistical evidence.