Yahoo Finance The Fed is about to 'downshift' and weaker earnings don't matter to stocks, says top Evercore strategist
The Federal Reserve is about to "downshift," and the market is adjusting, according Evercore's top strategist.
Julian Emanuel also told Bloomberg on Tuesday that earnings don't matter that much for stocks.
"I don't want to call it 'pause' ... but we know the trajectory is gonna change, and the market is getting comfortable with that."
The Federal Reserve is on the verge of an inflection point, and earnings will be less relevant to the stock market, according to Evercore ISI's top equity and quantitative strategist Julian Emanuel.
He told Bloomberg on Tuesday that the market could see choppy action in light of this week's central bank meeting and next week's midterm elections, but the bigger picture has become clear for investors.
"We know the Fed is about to downshift," Emanuel said. "I don't want to call it 'pause' ... but we know the trajectory is gonna change, and the market is getting comfortable with that."
His comments come as the Fed wraps up its latest policy meeting on Wednesday, when another rate hike of 75 basis points is widely expected.
But markets have started to price in greater odds of a less aggressive increase of 50 basis points in December, with even smaller quarter-point hikes coming early next year.
"At the same time, just like the July earnings season, we know that the numbers are coming down," Emanuel said. "It didn't matter [for] stocks in July, and it doesn't matter now, because frankly people have been, for the most part, underinvested."
That view contrasts with those of other Wall Street analysts, who have said earnings could lead stocks lower.
Last week, Morgan Stanley chief equity strategist Mike Wilson said that surprisingly upbeat earnings are failing to show investors that earnings are set to fall and the stock market has yet to bottom out.
Meanwhile, Evercore's Emanuel added that the correlation between stocks and bonds remains in place, and the UK drew a "line in the sand when we resolved the political issues that at least stopped the parabolic move up in yields, and that's supportive for stocks."
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