Fee Revenues to Aid State Street Q3 Earnings, NIR & Expenses to Hurt
State Street STT is slated to announce third-quarter 2024 results on Oct. 15, before the opening bell. The company’s revenues and earnings are expected to have increased year over year.
Stay up-to-date with all quarterly releases: See Zacks Earnings Calendar.
In the last reported quarter, STT’s earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate. Growth in fee revenues and higher net interest revenues (NIR) primarily aided results. However, higher expenses hurt the results to some extent.
State Street has an impressive earnings surprise history. The company’s earnings outpaced the Zacks Consensus Estimate in each of the trailing four quarters, delivering a surprise of 10.73%, on average.
State Street Corporation Price and EPS Surprise
State Street Corporation price-eps-surprise | State Street Corporation Quote
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for State Street’s third-quarter earnings $2.08 per share has been revised marginally lower over the past seven days. The figure implies a 7.8% rise from the year-ago quarter.
The consensus estimate for sales of $3.18 billion suggests 18.1% year-over-year growth.
Key Factors & Estimates for STT’s Q3 Results
Net Interest Revenues: On Sept. 18, the Federal Reserve announced a 50-basis point rate cut for the first time since March 2020. The impact on STT’s NIR during the third quarter is unlikely to have been significant.
Further, the inverted yield curve remained for the major part of the quarter, and high funding costs are expected to have weighed on interest income.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for average interest-earning assets for the to-be-reported quarter is pegged at $253.4 billion, which implies a 3.2% fall from the previous quarter. Our estimate for the metric is pegged at $240 billion.
Lending activities continued at a decent pace in the first two months of the quarter per the Fed’s latest data. These factors are expected to have supported State Street’s NIR to some extent.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for NIR (on a fully taxable-equivalent or FTE basis) of $694.5 million indicates a sequential fall of 5.6%. We project NIR on an FTE basis of $668.9 million.
Management expects NIR to rise marginally in the third quarter, driven by the efforts undertaken to aid the metric.
Fee Revenues: Higher volatility and volume in foreign exchange (FX) markets are likely to have boosted State Street’s FX trading services income. However, the dollar weakened to some extent after the rate cut implementation. This offset the positive impact of the high volatility to some extent. The consensus estimate for FX trading services income is pegged at $350.6 million, suggesting a 4.3% rise from the last quarter. We expect the metric to be $336 million.
The consensus estimate for management fees of $526.4 million implies a 3% increase on a sequential basis. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for servicing fees of $1.27 billion indicates 2.4% growth. Our estimates for management fees and servicing fees are $516.8 billion and $1.23 billion, respectively.
The consensus estimate for securities finance revenues of $109.7 million suggests a 1.6% increase. Our estimate for the same is $110.5 million.
On the other hand, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for software and processing fees suggests a 5.3% fall to $202.6 million. Our estimate for the same is $208.5 billion.
Overall, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for total fee revenues of $2.5 billion indicates 1.7% growth from the prior quarter. We project the metric to be $2.51 billion.
Expenses: Higher information systems and communication expenses, inflationary pressure and the company’s strategic buyouts and investments in franchises are expected to have increased operating expenses in the third quarter.
Further, management’s efforts to streamline its business model to enhance its operating efficiency are expected to have increased expenses.
We anticipate total adjusted non-interest expenses to be $2.27 billion.
What the Zacks Model Reveals for STT
As per our model, it cannot be conclusively predicted that State Street will beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate this time around. This is because the company lacks the right combination of the two key ingredients — a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) or better — to increase the odds of an earnings beat.
You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Earnings ESP: The Earnings ESP for State Street is 0.00%.
Zacks Rank: The company currently carries a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy).
Banks Worth a Look
Here are a couple of bank stocks that you may want to consider, as our model shows that these have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this time:
The Earnings ESP for F.N.B. Corp FNB is +0.93% and it carries a Zacks Rank #3 at present. The company is slated to report third-quarter 2024 results on Oct. 17.
Over the past seven days, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for FNB’s quarterly earnings has remained unchanged at 36 cents per share.
M&T Bank MTB is scheduled to release third-quarter 2024 earnings on Oct. 17. The company, which carries a Zacks Rank #3 at present, has an Earnings ESP of +0.33%. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.
MTB’s quarterly earnings estimates have remained unchanged at $3.60 over the past week.
Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report
State Street Corporation (STT) : Free Stock Analysis Report
M&T Bank Corporation (MTB) : Free Stock Analysis Report
F.N.B. Corporation (FNB) : Free Stock Analysis Report