FOREX-All quiet before Yellen: dollar dips as Fed speech approaches

* Jackson Hole speech dominates trade

* Analysts don't expect hawkish surprise

* U.S (Other OTC: UBGXF - news) . data shows robust economy

* Japan price data keep pressure on BOJ for more stimulus

By Jemima Kelly

LONDON, Aug 26 (Reuters) - The dollar inched down on Friday to leave it little changed on the week, with investors focused on a speech later in the day by the chair of the Federal Reserve that may signal whether U.S. interest rates will rise this year.

Janet Yellen's keynote address at a global gathering of central bankers in the U.S. mountain resort of Jackson Hole is due at 1400 GMT.

She (Munich: SOQ.MU - news) may send a clear signal that the Fed is gearing up for an increase this year. Many analysts expect, though, that if she speaks about monetary policy she will take a more equivocal line - that it is data-dependent and a rate hike this year is just a possibility.

Futures markets are pricing in only around one chance in five rates will rise in September, and around a 50 percent chance of at least one increase by the end of the year, according to CME FedWatch. Any clear signal that a 2016 hike is on the cards could therefore send the greenback surging.

The dollar index, which measures the currency against a basket of six major counterparts, edged down 0.1 percent to 94.663, roughly where it started the week.

"It's been a bit choppy this week - it's a classic summer market and people are wanting to get a theme for the rest of the year but are maybe a bit wary of doing that before Yellen speaks today," said HSBC currency strategist Dominic Bunning, in London.

"If (Yellen) does speak about monetary policy, she'll try to keep a hike this year on the table. But I don't think she'll be particularly hawkish - our view is that they (the Fed) don't hike this year."

Commerzbank (Xetra: CBK100 - news) 's head of foreign exchange research in Frankfurt, Ulrich Leuchtmann, said he saw more of a risk of a negative surprise for the greenback from the speech.

"For the best part of this week there was a sense that Jackson Hole might bring something useful on policy, but this shifted yesterday and for good reason, because I don't think the Fed has any incentive to make a big hawkish announcement," he said. "They are so data-dependent."

Data overnight reinforced recent upbeat assessments of the U.S. economy. New (KOSDAQ: 160550.KQ - news) orders for manufactured capital goods rose for a second straight month in July, while the number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits unexpectedly dropped .

The dollar inched down 0.1 percent to 100.46 yen.

Japanese data released early on Friday added to evidence that the Bank of Japan has reason to increase its stimulus next month, as the economy slips back toward deflation.

For Reuters new Live Markets blog on European and UK stock markets see reuters://realtime/verb=Open/url=http://emea1.apps.cp.extranet.thomsonreuters.biz/cms/?pageId=livemarkets (Additional reporting by Lisa Twaronite in Tokyo; editing by Larry King)