Freeport-McMoRan Inc. Just Beat Analyst Forecasts, And Analysts Have Been Updating Their Predictions

Freeport-McMoRan Inc. (NYSE:FCX) defied analyst predictions to release its first-quarter results, which were ahead of market expectations. Freeport-McMoRan delivered a significant beat with revenue hitting US$6.3b and statutory EPS reaching US$0.32, both beating estimates by more than 10%. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

View our latest analysis for Freeport-McMoRan

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After the latest results, the 15 analysts covering Freeport-McMoRan are now predicting revenues of US$25.1b in 2024. If met, this would reflect an okay 5.3% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to surge 37% to US$1.58. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of US$24.3b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$1.63 in 2024. Overall it looks as though the analysts were a bit mixed on the latest results. Although there was a an okay to revenue, the consensus also made a minor downgrade to its earnings per share forecasts.

There's been no major changes to the price target of US$50.87, suggesting that the impact of higher forecast revenue and lower earnings won't result in a meaningful change to the business' valuation. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. There are some variant perceptions on Freeport-McMoRan, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$60.00 and the most bearish at US$39.20 per share. Analysts definitely have varying views on the business, but the spread of estimates is not wide enough in our view to suggest that extreme outcomes could await Freeport-McMoRan shareholders.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Freeport-McMoRan's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2024 expected to display 7.2% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 12% over the past five years. Juxtapose this against the other companies in the industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenues (in aggregate) 4.8% per year. So it's pretty clear that, while Freeport-McMoRan's revenue growth is expected to slow, it's still expected to grow faster than the industry itself.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. Happily, they also upgraded their revenue estimates, and are forecasting them to grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$50.87, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have estimates - from multiple Freeport-McMoRan analysts - going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

You should always think about risks though. Case in point, we've spotted 1 warning sign for Freeport-McMoRan you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.