It's been a good week for Fresenius SE & Co. KGaA (ETR:FRE) shareholders, because the company has just released its latest yearly results, and the shares gained 2.2% to €49.66. It was a credible result overall, with revenues of €35b and statutory earnings per share of €3.38 both in line with analyst estimates, showing that Fresenius SE KGaA is executing in line with expectations. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what top analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether analysts have changed their mind on Fresenius SE KGaA after the latest results.
Following the latest results, Fresenius SE KGaA's 19 analysts are now forecasting revenues of €37.4b in 2020. This would be a reasonable 5.6% improvement in sales compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are expected to increase 5.9% to €3.58. Before this earnings report, analysts had been forecasting revenues of €37.3b and earnings per share (EPS) of €3.60 in 2020. So it's pretty clear that, although analysts have updated their estimates, there's been no major change in expectations for the business following the latest results.
Analysts reconfirmed their price target of €57.33, showing that the business is executing well and in line with expectations. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. There are some variant perceptions on Fresenius SE KGaA, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at €72.10 and the most bearish at €32.46 per share. This is a fairly broad spread of estimates, suggesting that analysts are forecasting a wide range of possible outcomes for the business.
Zooming out to look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up both against past performance, and against industry growth estimates. We would highlight that Fresenius SE KGaA's revenue growth is expected to slow, with forecast 5.6% increase next year well below the historical 7.4%p.a. growth over the last five years. Compare this to the other companies in this market with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenue at 5.7% per year. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it looks like analysts are expecting Fresenius SE KGaA to grow at about the same rate as the wider market.
The Bottom Line
The most obvious conclusion from these results is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with analysts holding earnings per share steady, in line with previous estimates. They also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, with the company predicted to grow at about the same rate as the wider market. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.
With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Fresenius SE KGaA going out to 2024, and you can see them free on our platform here..
It might also be worth considering whether Fresenius SE KGaA's debt load is appropriate, using our debt analysis tools on the Simply Wall St platform, here.
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