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Europe mixed and US stocks fall as rate cut hopes fade for 2024

ftse FILE PHOTO: Traders work, as a screen shows Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's news conference after the U.S. Federal Reserve interest rates announcement, on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York, U.S., October 30, 2019. REUTERS/Brendan McDermid/File Photo
Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell's words will be closely watched for any change in the mantra that policymakers need to be convinced inflation is conquered before any move. The FTSE was down. (REUTERS / Reuters)

The FTSE 100 and US stocks declined on Tuesday, falling as gloomy data was published by the British Retail Consortium (BRC) on how retail sales fared in February and US rate cut hopes took a knock.

  • The FTSE 100 (^FTSE) was almost flat by the closing bell. Germany's DAX (^GDAXI) was 0.2% lower and the CAC in Paris (^FCHI) lost 0.4%. The pan-European STOXX 600 (^STOXX) ticked 0.3% lower.

  • US stocks were on the back foot heading into Tuesday, pulling back from recent all-time highs, with the S&P 500 (^GSPC), Dow (^DJI) and Nasdaq (^IXIC) 0.9%, 0.7% and 1.7% lower respectively.

  • Hopes for coming rate cuts by the Federal Reserve took a knock after comments by policymaker Raphael Bostic. The Atlanta Fed president said he sees just one rate cut this year, penciled in for the third quarter.

  • Investors are now even more focused on Fed chair Jerome Powell's testimony to Congress on Wednesday. His words will be closely watched for any change in the mantra that policymakers need to be convinced inflation is conquered before any move.

  • Earlier in the session, stocks across Europe fell amid mixed news for the UK high street. The BRC revealed retail sales fell short of expectations, with a flat 1% year-on-year increase, missing the 1.5% mark expected by the market.

Follow along for live updates

LIVE COVERAGE IS OVER15 updates
  • Thanks for reading!

    Head over to Yahoo Finance US for more market moving stories.

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  • Gold vs Bitcoin

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  • What will the spring budget bring?

    We've got some more detail today on what to expect in tomorrow's budget.

    First up from my colleague Pedro Goncalves, one for the petrol heads:

    The top lines: Jeremy Hunt is to extend a 5p cut in fuel duty for another year at a cost of £5bn, according to reports.

    The 5p per litre cut is due to run out in March 2024 and if it were not extended, fuel duty would be set to return to its frozen rate of 57.95p per litre.

    Hunt is also expected to scrap an inflation-linked rise in fuel duty — extending a freeze that began in 2011.

    Meanwhile, a potential income tax cut is on the cards. Another from Pedro:

    The top lines: Jeremy Hunt will knock two percentage points off national insurance (NI) for 27 million British workers in his budget statement on Wednesday, in a move that will cost £10bn.

    The cut to national insurance contributions will be the key measure of Hunt's budget after he decided against cutting income tax because of the tight fiscal room for manoeuvre available to him, according to The Times.

    We also have some detail on a rumoured change to mortgages, by mortgage experts:

  • UK M&A in decline?

    Fresh data released this morning by the ONS suggests declining rates of M&A deals.

    It states: In Q4 2023, the total combined number of domestic and cross-border mergers and acquisitions involving a change in majority share ownership was 367; this was 33 transactions fewer than the previous quarter (400).

    Despite the fact there was an overall dip in takeovers, the value of deals featuring foreign companies acquiring UK firms ballooned: The value of inward M&A (foreign companies acquiring UK companies) in Q4 2023 was £8.6bn, £3.3bn higher than the previous quarter (£5.3bn).

    What's more: In Q4 2023, the total value of outward M&A (UK companies acquiring foreign companies) was £3.2bn, £1.1bn higher than the previous quarter (£2.1bn).

  • Ashtead drags down FTSE 100

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    Stock was around 6.9% lower in early trade.

  • February retail sales "very limp"

    February for the UK high street has been branded "very limp" as UK retail sales fell short of expectations, with a flat 1% year-on-year increase, missing the 1.5% mark expected by the market.

    February's figure, blamed on wet weather and cost of living pressures, is the lowest since August 2022.

    "As many households continue to adapt budgets to meet higher essential costs, including higher mortgage rates, consumer reluctance to get out there and start spending is likely to remain in the short term," said Linda Ellett, head of KPMG UK consumer, leisure and retail.

    "With big increases in labour costs and business rates just weeks away, adding to an already stressed cost agenda for retailers, many will be pinning their hopes on some good news in the chancellor's spring budget this week to help kick start a spending revival on the high street."

  • Overnight in the US

    US stocks closed lower on Monday as investors girded for a week where Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell's testimony and the monthly jobs report could put equity gains to the test.

    The S&P 500 (^GSPC) fell just below the flatline after ending Friday with its 16th weekly win in 18 weeks. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) declined 0.2%. The Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) fell 0.4% as a drop in both Apple (AAPL) and Tesla (TSLA) shares weighed on the tech heavy index.

    Stocks have racked up gains amid a relentless AI-spurred run-up in techs, which helped the Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) finally nail a fresh all-time high after a years long wait last week.

    The tech rally, and Nvidia's (NVDA) breakneck rise to a $2 trillion valuation in particular, has prompted concerns about a building bubble — though some analysts are less worried. Shares of the chipmaker rose 6% to new all time highs during Monday's session.

    From our US team.

  • Overnight in Asia

    Stocks were in the red overnight in Asia, as China's premier said the country’s target for economic growth this year is set at around 5%, in line with expectations. Li Qiang added that the country would look to issue 1 trillion yuan ($139bn) in long-term bonds to help bridge funding gaps.

    The government will also expand its subsidised housing in an effort to prop up the ailing property sector.

    The Hang Seng in Hong Kong (^HSI) lost 2.7% and Korea's Kospi (^KS11) wavered 0.9%.

    Japan's Nikkei (^N225) the golden child of Asian indexes for the past months, fell slightly.

  • Good morning!

    Hello from London, where we're watching more rumours trickle through about the chancellor's spring budget. Looks like investors were taking profits overnight in both the US and Asia. The FTSE 100 is also set for a lower open. Let's get to it.

Watch: When will the Federal Reserve be ready to ease on inflation?

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