Give Trump credit for his focus on jobs

A lot of CEOs visited the White House while Barack Obama was president. Most of the meetings were unpublicized. If they helped create any jobs, Obama never mentioned it.

It will still be months or years before it’s possible to tell if Trump actually moves the needle on the economy, by helping generate the kind of middle-income jobs that have been disappearing during the last two decades. Showmanship alone won’t do it. And companies issuing press releases every time they hire five people won’t stop the automation that threatens as much as half of today’s workforce.

But the urgency Trump is demonstrating on job creation is appropriate and welcome, even if some of his methods are suspect. Obama, to his credit, did preside over a decent economic recovery following the 2007-2009 recession, and the creation of 15 million jobs from the low point in late 2009. But many of those jobs pay less than the jobs lost during the recession, which is why median household income is still below pre-recession levels. Living standards have fallen for many Americans—one big reason Trump got elected in the first place.

Obama took the conventional approach to creating jobs—stimulus spending, government programs to retrain workers, commissions consisting of CEOs making recommendations. He got the predictable middling results. Trump’s approach is obviously more aggressive. His plans include some of the Obama stuff—infrastructure spending, for example—plus a whole lot more. And he’s telling the nation’s business leaders they better hire more Americans—or else.

Or else—what?—is the obvious question in many boardrooms these days, but put that aside for a moment. Trump is basically saying the nation must do whatever it takes to reinvigorate the middle class. Honestly, it’s about time somebody declared this needs to be a pressing national priority, and acted on it. Obama talked the talk, but he could have been more Trumpian in his outreach to business leaders and his use of the bully pulpit.

Now, for the methods. Trump is throwing everything at the wall by pledging to slash business taxes, kill onerous regulations, stimulate more energy production, reinvigorate manufacturing and force companies to buy American as a condition of federal favors. A cooperative Congress gives him one advantage Obama didn’t have. Not all of Trump’s ideas will work, and plenty of critics will be eager to pounce on his failures. But some of it might work, and it ought to be obvious by now that it’s time to experiment with new ways to boost economic growth.

Trump’s presidency promises to be a high-wire act, and there are many ways he could undermine his own effectiveness. The biggest risk to Trump’s economic agenda is probably lack of focus. He has a long list of campaign promises, including a bunch of things Americans don’t care about very much. If he fights long, bruising battles in his quest to wall off Mexico, hunt illegal immigrants or uncover nonexistent voter fraud, it will dilute his political capital and threaten support from an electorate that’s already deeply unsure about him. Trump’s Nixonian insecurities could be his undoing.

He also might want to start listening to mainstream economists about what’s really needed to boost the economy beyond the Obama zone. Growth of 3% or more is almost impossible without robust population growth, which is why immigration is so important. But Trump wants to restrict immigration. He also focuses too much on 20^th century manufacturing jobs and too little on the jobs of the future. And the protectionist tariffs he keeps threatening are likely to do more harm than good, if ever enacted.

About those threats. Trump may have bullied his way to success while running a private company, but there is simply no way he’s going to force big public companies to hire more workers if it’s not in their economic interest to do so. He may know this, which is why he threatens with one hand while stroking with the other. He says inducements like lower taxes and fewer regulations will produce the growth that will trigger more hiring, which is probably the strongest point in his favor. He threatens punishments such as tariffs because they play well with the public, not because there’s any real merit to such ideas. But there is no Trump Lite, so we take the good with the bad and hope he’s bluffing on his wackier ideas. If he is, the nation could end up better off.

Rick Newman is the author of four books, including Rebounders: How Winners Pivot from Setback to Success. Follow him on Twitter: @rickjnewman.