Dublin, Oct. 13, 2020 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- The "Opportunities and Use Cases for Autonomous Trucking, Forecast to 2040" report has been added to ResearchAndMarkets.com's offering.
Global trucking demand is on the rise with the consistent increase in capacity, need for faster transfer influenced by economic developments, new business ventures, and changing buying patterns. However, the trucking industry in general is plagued by concerns like driver shortage, vehicle price increases, fuel price volatility, road safety, and performance limitations amidst rapidly transformative freight handling, stocking, and distribution practices as well as infrastructure changes. Trucking, however, has remained conventional in general. Digitalization and the advent of technology have helped identify gaps and harness efficiency to the best.
Autonomous trucks are viewed as the next logical leap to overcome existing bottlenecks and to keep pace with the rapidly evolving ecosystem. The COVID-19 pandemic has underlined the need for autonomous trucks and their effectiveness during emergencies. With this pandemic, the industry faces issues such as driver shortage and severe commodity demand triggered by panic shopping. Autonomous vehicles (AVs) offer a solution to both the aforementioned with the capability of driving longer hours and safely. Logistics and shipping operators have been provided with a strong case to include self-driving trucks in their fleet as the means of a response action plan in the event of unforeseen emergencies.
Unlike humans with the limitation of operating hours, systems can operate trucks 24x7 effectively, increasing commodity flow within the freight value system. Perception and visual systems can acts as additional eyes to the driver, while analytics and predictive algorithms enhance attentiveness, thus helping the driver traverse through unforeseen events. Cost effectiveness of autonomous trucks will aid fleet operators achieve faster return on investment (RoI) and help address freight supply pressure.
Although the technology required to make trucks completely autonomous without drivers is still very nascent, the achieved capabilities have a variety of application scope. Features such as Advanced Emergency Braking, Adaptive Cruise Control, Lane Change Assist, and Reverse Assist are the first steps towards achieving a working package in the near future, while individually acting as safety and driver assist functions.
On the basis of SAE classification of the levels of autonomy, the industry is already well accustomed to absorb Level 1 and Level 2 technologies. The Level 1 feature is already predominant in the medium and heavy commercial vehicle (MHCV) segment with an estimated penetration of 45%, which is expected to grow exponentially, driven by regulatory stimulus, and reach 70% by 2020. All trucks are expected to possess at least Level 1 capability by 2030. Widespread launch and commercialization of the Level 2 feature is expected starting 2020, with its penetration forecast to reach 72% by 2040. OEMs are expected to skip Level 3 autonomy due to its similarity in terms of technology, functionality, and incremental costs with Level 4.
Achieving Level 4 trucking capability will be a major milestone that will enable trucks to operate without human intervention at any stage. Although deployment is still distant, Level 4 is the major focal point for manufacturers and start-ups, with several pilot runs and trials already in progress. Level 4 trucks are expected to be commercialized by 2025 and contribute to ~6.4% of the total general freight tonnage carried annually in the United States by 2040, which will lead to savings of ~$4.75 billion on the annual freight bill.
North America and Europe are leading the global autonomous truck transition with many industry stakeholders based out of or testing vehicles in these regions. Cross-brand platooning trials were conducted in European test beds to understand the applicability scope of the technology. Many cities are upgrading their underlying infrastructure to enable V2V and V2X transmissions needed for trucks to operate autonomously. Government-funded initiatives with collaborative efforts from multiple and diverse industry participants are being done to fast-track the development of autonomous trucks.
Liability remains one of the most significant hurdles for autonomous driving. Regulations remain rudiment and not exhaustive in terms of functional requirements and are very conservative with respect to deployment on public roads. In effect, they mandate a certain level of safety features to be a requirement for the sale and registration of trucks. Industry stakeholders need to be provided with a comprehensive framework and guidance plan to explore, take next steps, and invest suitably in relevant development areas.
Incumbent OEMs such as Daimler, Volvo, Paccar, Scania, and MAN are spearheading the transition with development already having reached the testing phases. Level 1 and Level 2 features are being offered both as standard and optional based on regional preferences. Start-ups such as Peloton Technology, TuSimple, Embark Trucks, and Waymo have taken noticeable steps to potentially capture market in large volumes. Technology and algorithm providers are key players in development of technology; hence OEMs are acquiring and engaging in partnerships and alliances to leverage domain expertise and to keep pace with the transition.
Key Topics Covered:
1. Executive Summary
Key Findings and Market Outlook
Autonomous Driving Value Proposition
Autonomous Systems will Enable Truck-as-a-Service
Major Influences on Autonomous Trucking - 2020 to 2040
Forecast of ADAS Features in Trucks - By Sales Unit with Fitments
Automated Driving Definitions
Levels of Vehicle Automation
Impact of SAE Definitions
Factors Influencing the Shift towards Autonomous Trucking
Market Trends in Autonomous Trucking
Research Aims and Objectives
Key Questions this Study will Answer
2. Autonomous Trucking Technology - Overview
Functional Block Diagram for Autonomous Trucks
ADAS Features - Relevance to Usage Applications
Key Challenges to Autonomous Driving in CVs
Implications of Autonomous Technology in Trucks
Impact of Autonomous Driving on Industry Stakeholders
Impact of COVID-19 on the Autonomous Truck Market
ADAS Market Assessment in the COVID-19 Scenario
3. Application of Autonomous Trucking Technologies in 2019, 2030, and 2040
Logistics - Make to Sale
Port - Ship to Dispatch
Refuse - Collection to Disposal
Implementation Roadmap of Autonomous Trucks - By Use Cases
L1 and L2 ADAS Fitment Forecast for MCVs - EU
L1 and L2 ADAS Fitment Forecast for HCVs - EU
L1 and L2 ADAS Fitment Forecast for MCVs - North America
L1 and L2 ADAS Fitment Forecast for HCVs - North America
Progression of Automation in HD Trucks
Autonomous Truck Market Value - Forecast for Incremental Fitment Cost
Tele-operation for Autonomous Trucks
Freight Transfer Hubs - For Long-haul Autonomous Trucks
Truck Platooning Benefits and Challenges
Platooning - Phases I, II, and III
4. Key Elements of Autonomous Trucking - Technology, Investments, and Infrastructure
Supplemental Infrastructure Development - Ongoing Field Projects
V2X Technology Evolution for Piloting Autonomous Trucks
Autonomous Product Pipeline Plan of Major OEMs
Autonomous Product Roadmap
Autonomous Companies to Look Out For
Strategic Partnerships in the Industry
Autonomous Trucking Ecosystem
Value Map by Ecosystem Participants
Building Blocks of an Autonomous Truck
Autonomous Truck Technology Roadmap - Hardware Focus
Autonomous Truck Technology Roadmap - Software Focus
Platform-based Approach for Future Vehicle Development
Technology Evolution - Radar Module
Technology Evolution - LiDAR Module
Technology Evolution - Forward Camera Module
Role of Sensor Data Fusion by Level of Automation
Levels of Autonomous Driving and Sensors
5. Full Autonomous Vehicles - Progression Outlook
Validation and Testing of Automated Vehicles
AV Testing and Deployment Laws - North America
Legislative Initiatives in the United States for AVs
EU Member States' Initiatives for Testing of Automated CVs
Regulatory Overview - North America and Europe
Pilots, Trials and Testing - Major OEMs
Pilots, Trials and Testing - Major Start-ups
Authority Initiatives and Research Projects
6. Freight Model Forecast for 2030 - For L4 Autonomous Vehicles
L4 AV Forecast - General Freight
Penetration of L4 Autonomous Trucks - By Segment
Estimation of Annual Freight Cost - For General Freight
7. Growth Opportunities
Growth Opportunity 1 - Applications and Expansion
Growth Opportunity 2 - Regulations and Liability
Growth Opportunity 3 - Investments and Partnerships
Strategic Imperatives for Success and Growth
8. The Last Word
MAN Peloton Technology
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