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Global emissions from fuel consumption likely peaked last year - research

FILE PHOTO: Cars drive underneath the Mulholland Bridge on the 405 freeway in Los Angeles, California

By Nina Chestney

LONDON (Reuters) - Global emissions from fuel consumption likely peaked last year, as power demand has fallen this year due to coronavirus pandemic-related restrictions, research by Bloomberg Energy Finance said on Tuesday.

In its New Energy Outlook report, BNEF said emissions from the energy sector have fallen by around 10% this year as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic. Even if they rise again with economic recovery, they will never reach 2019 levels again.

From 2027 onwards, emissions are seen falling at a rate of 0.7% per year to 2050.

This is due to the rise in wind and solar power, increased uptake of electric vehicles and improved energy efficiency across industries, the report said.

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Together, wind and solar power will account for 56% of global electricity generation by mid-century.

Coal-fired power is forecast to peak in China in 2027 and India in 2030 and total oil demand is expected to peak in 2035 and then fall by 0.7% year-on-year to return to 2018 levels by 2050.

Gas is the only fossil fuel to keep growing to 2050, up 0.5% year-on-year.

However, despite the progress of the energy transition, and the decrease in energy demand brought by COVID-19, BNEF still sees energy sector emissions putting the world on course for a 3.3 degrees Celsius temperature increase by 2100, well above a globally agreed limit of below 2C.

"To stay well below two degrees of global temperature rise, we would need to reduce emissions by 6% every year starting now, and to limit the warming to 1.5C, emissions would have to fall by 10% per year," said Matthias Kimmel, senior analyst at BNEF and co-author of the report.

(Reporting by Nina Chestney; Editing by Chizu Nomiyama)