GLOBAL MARKETS-Dollar marches to four-year high; euro, oil wilt
* Dollar basket at 4-year high, Euro near 2-year low
* European stocks see small gains, Russia rebound continues
* Wall Street ready for flurry of data, more Fed input
* Treasury/Bund gap widest in 15 years
* Brent crude under $97, capped by ample supply
By Marc Jones
LONDON, Sept 25 (Reuters) - The dollar hit a four-year high
and oil hovered near a two-year low on Thursday, as investors
wagered the United States will be one of the few economies
healthy enough to wean itself off central bank aid in the near
future.
Wall Street was expected start the day little changed,
according to futures prices, with traders gearing up for
employment and PMI data and another day of deciphering
the Federal Reserve's policy signals.
European shares saw small gains as Britain and
France debated joining U.S.-led military action against Islamist
militants and as the euro sank to a 22-month low on bets the
European Central bank is heading for a money-printing drive.
ECB President Mario Draghi reiterated in a newspaper
interview on Thursday there was more the euro zone central bank
can do if needed, having already promised to keep record low
interest rates in place for potentially years.
His words came as the ECB released its latest batch of
lending data, which showed, as it has for months, that there is
little in the way of demand for credit in the euro zone's
still-struggling economy.
"ECB President Mario Draghi continues to beat the QE
(quantitative easing) drums ... so it's hardly surprising that
euro/dollar is trading at even lower levels this morning," said
Esther Reichelt, a currency strategist at Commerzbank (Xetra: CBK100 - news) ,"
Britain's FTSE dipped but Germany's DAX and
France's CAC rose 0.2-0.3 percent to put the region in
the black after a choppy few days.
The currency market saw most of the action, however, with
the euro falling briefly below $1.27 for the first time
since November 2012 as the ECB data cast a shadow.
The dollar, which had its own momentum following some
strong U.S. housing data on Wednesday, powered up 0.35 percent
to a fresh four-year high against a basket of currencies.
A key factor was widening yield differentials between U.S.
10-year government bonds and their German
counterparts. The difference is now the biggest in
nearly 15 years and is driving more investors to buy the dollar.
http://link.reuters.com/sah92w
The greenback was also within touching distance of its
recent six-year high against the yen and was exerting
broad downward pressure on commodities markets which are largely
priced in dollars.
Brent crude was stuck below $97 a barrel having hit
its lowest in 26 months, with abundant supply also continuing to
drag on prices.
Gold extended its recent losses too, reacting to stronger
equities and the robust U.S. economic data that curbed its
safe-haven appeal.
RUSSIA REBOUND
With so much focus currently on the U.S. economy, weekly
unemployment claims and August durable goods data, both due at
1230 GMT, and Markit (Stuttgart: A1139A - news) 's 1345 GMT preliminary September services
Purchasing Managers Index, were set to be closely scrutinised.
Geopolitical uncertainty rumbled in the background as air
strikes against Islamic State militants in Syria continued, but
there were more positive signs on the tensions with Russia over
Ukraine.
Ukraine's President Petro Poroshenko said that for the first
time in many months no deaths or wounded had been reported in
the past 24 hours in the conflict with pro-Russian separatists
indicating the ceasefire "has finally begun working".
That helped Russian stocks rise for the third
day running, with investors also sensing the European Union may
decide to ease some of its sanctions against Russia by the end
of the month.
The Asian day was mixed. MSCI (NYSE: MSCI - news) 's index of Asia-Pacific shares
outside Japan fell 0.4 percent after touching a
four-month low, though Tokyo's high-flying Nikkei jumped
1.1 percent as the yen continued to bow to the dollar.
Emerging markets, particularly in Asia and Latin America,
continued to feel the strain of the stronger dollar. EM shares
saw their 14th fall in 16 sessions having just lost
their year-to-date lead on developed market stocks.
The New Zealand dollar meanwhile hit a one-year low
after Reserve Bank of New Zealand Governor Graeme Wheeler ramped
up his recent warnings about the level of the currency.
"The Bank's analysis indicates that the real exchange rate
is well above its sustainable level, and also above levels
justified by short-term business cycle factors," he said in a
statement that caught markets off-guard.
It also inflicted some collateral damage on its Antipodean
cousin, the Australian dollar, which fell to $0.8813,
its lowest since early February.
"The statement itself was another intervention threat. The
Reserve Bank is saying that even down at these levels the kiwi
is too high," said Imre Speizer, currency strategist at Westpac.
(Additional reporting by Anirban Nag in London; Editing by
Catherine Evans)