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Grade inflation could be here to stay unless entire exam system is overhauled, Ofqual advisor warns

Exams have been cancelled for a second year in a row due to the pandemic
Exams have been cancelled for a second year in a row due to the pandemic

Grade inflation could be here to stay unless the Government overhauls the entire exam system, an Ofqual advisor has warned.

Having a second year of wildly inflated grades is the most “significant problem” with this year’s grading system, according to Barnaby Lenon who is a member of the exam watchdog’s standards advisory group.

His remarks come as Gavin Williamson was forced to defend his plans for this summer’s A-level and GCSE results to be based on teachers’ predictions, after exams were cancelled for a second year in a row due to the pandemic.

Mr Lenon, who is chair of the Independent Schools Council, said that the most serious long-term ramification of this year’s process is the issue of how to “wind back” from such high levels of inflation, adding: “If we have grade inflation like last summer, are we going to live with that forever?”

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He said that ministers will feel that it is “never a good time” to revert to pre-pandemic levels of grade inflation since there would always be a year group that is disadvantaged by this change.

“In order to get a grip on grade inflation in 2011-12, [former Education Secretary] Michael Gove and Oqual devised a completely new grading system for GCSEs which moved from alphabetical to numerical,” Mr Lenon said.

He went on to argue that in order to bring grade inflation levels down to pre-2020 levels, the entire system may need to be “re-jigged”, adding that this is “perfectly possible” to do.

Mr Lenon said that while this year is a “far from perfect system” it is at least better than last year. “This is the best we could do in a bad situation and I am pleased that we have a system that ensures that every student has grades,” he said.

His comments were echoed by Robert Halfon MP, the Tory chair of the education select committee, who accused the Government of “baking a rock cake of grade inflation into the system”.

He told the Commons: “What is the Government’s plan to ensure we will not have a wild west of grading [and] that these grades will be meaningful to employers so as not to damage children’s life chances?”

Sir Jon Coles, a former director general at the Department for Education, also warned on Thursday that grades this summer are likely to be even more generous than 2020.

He said it “looks like a system where schools will worry that if they are not as generous as they can possibly justify, they will disadvantage their students” adding that he cannot see anything that would prevent this from happening.

Education chiefs also predicted an exam appeals “onslaught”, saying that schools are likely to receive record numbers of appeals this summer for pupils.

But Mr Williamson defended the system, saying that a series of internal and external checks will be carried out on teachers’ predicted grades to guard against grade inflation.