Yahoo Finance Graphic Packaging Holding Company (NYSE:GPK) Q1 2024 Earnings Call Transcript
Graphic Packaging Holding Company (NYSE:GPK) Q1 2024 Earnings Call Transcript April 30, 2024
Graphic Packaging Holding Company isn’t one of the 30 most popular stocks among hedge funds at the end of the third quarter (see the details here).
Operator: Good morning or good afternoon, all, and welcome to the Graphic Packaging First Quarter 2024 Earnings Call. My name is Adam and I'll be your operator today. [Operator Instructions] I will now hand the call to Melanie Skijus to begin. So Melanie, please go ahead when you are ready.
Melanie Skijus: Good morning and welcome to Graphic Packaging Holding Company's first quarter 2024 earnings call. Joining us on our call today are Mike Doss, the company's President and CEO and Steve Scherger, Executive Vice President and CFO. To help you follow along with today's call, we will be referencing our first quarter earnings presentation, which can be accessed through the webcast and also on the Investors section of our website at www.graphicpkg.com. Before I turn the call over to Mike, let me remind you that today's press release and the presentations made by our executives include forward-looking statements as defined in the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These statements are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from our expectations and projections.
These risks and uncertainties include, but are not limited to the factors identified in the release and in our filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission. With that, let me turn the call over to Mike.
Michael Doss: Thank you, Melanie. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us on the call today. As those who joined us for our Investor Day in February are aware, Graphic Packaging's transformation to a global leader in sustainable consumer packaging is well advanced. We spent the last eight years building a stronger, more diverse consumer packaging portfolio capable of delivering more consistent results, solid growth and substantial cash flow. During the first quarter, the strength and balance in that portfolio was on full display as the consumer purchasing patterns continued to shift, we moved with them. We are seeing volume improvement in certain markets and customer categories and excluding the impact of the Augusta bleached paperboard manufacturing facility sale, we expect to generate positive full year sales growth in 2024 as we partner with our customers to deliver the sustainable packaging solutions that consumers prefer.
Let's start with a brief overview of results. In the first quarter, Graphic Packaging sales were $2.3 billion, adjusted EBITDA was $443 million and adjusted EPS was $0.66. As Steve will discuss later, the biggest part of the sales decline and essentially all of the EBITDA decline was a function of our decision to reduce production of bleached paperboard to match demand. In the context of that decision, adjusted EBITDA margin down just 30 basis points at 19.6% is an outstanding result that demonstrates the strength of our portfolio and the strong execution our team delivered. Holiday timing and fewer shipping days accounted for about 2% of the sales decline. Turning to Slide 3, in our Investor Day in February, we introduced ambitious targets that are better aligned with the sustainable consumer packaging leader that we have become.
You can find a replay of each presentation on the Investor Relations website and I encourage you to listen if you weren't able to join us. Also in February, we announced an agreement to sell our Augusta bleached paperboard manufacturing facility to Clearwater Paper. We expect that sale to close tomorrow, May 1st. At that point, open-market paperboard sales, which has historically been a significant source of earnings volatility for us will be a very small part of the business. Turning to our recycled paperboard system. Steve and I visited our Waco recycled paperboard manufacturing facility site a couple of weeks ago, and I am pleased with the progress the team there is making. The Waco machine and supporting systems will be nearly identical to what we have at our Kalamazoo facility.
That was a strategic decision we made to further increase our competitive advantage in recycled paperboard. The decision not only significantly shortens the project timeline and reduces engineering costs, but it also creates real and valuable synergies in training and operations. In fact, an operator from our Kalamazoo K2 operation could almost immediately step into the same job at Waco and we plan to train many of our Waco teammates at Kalamazoo prior to Waco startup. Meanwhile, Waco will utilize high-value scrap from our wood fiber paperboard manufacturing facilities as well as numerous packaging facilities in the region. We are also progressing our plans to collect paper cups, another high-value fiber source within a radius around the Waco facility.
We see Waco as a billion dollar investment in the long-term competitive advantage, taking the advantage we already have in Kalamazoo across all of North America. Our broad diverse portfolio of sustainable consumer packaging solutions really does move with the consumer, allowing us to deliver consistent results even as consumer purchasing patterns and economic conditions change. That was evident in our first quarter results with continued strength in foodservice and stronger beverage volumes helping to offset weaker results in certain food categories and household products. Some consumers have responded to inflation by shifting to private-label products and we were able to offset some of the declines we saw in grocery with gains in the club channel.
The diversity of our product portfolio combined with the agility and execution strength of our team to offset the weakness in one market or channel with the strength in another is exactly what we intended to build and it is working. Within food and household products, we did see pockets of year-over-year growth. But for those of you who follow consumer product markets know that volumes remain sluggish across many consumer stable categories. I do expect to see volumes improve further in the second quarter and anticipate a material acceleration in volume growth in the second half with new innovation wins, product launches ramping up, and a broader return to growth across our customers' businesses. We delivered $37 million of innovation sales growth in the first quarter, with contributions across all five of our innovation platforms.
Key contributions came from our new Nissin Noodles Cup and our Chick-fil-A Cold&Go cup as well as Boardio paperboard canister solutions. The cups are replacing foam, while Boardio, in these instances, is replacing plastic. Our innovation pipeline is robust and while we don't control the timing of customer product launches, I'm confident that we will meet our 2% innovation sales growth target for the year. Slide 4 is a reminder of how broad our packaging portfolio has become. We serve five markets with food the largest, beverage next and our growing foodservice category not far behind. Our investments and new capabilities have taken us further into household products and provided entry into the new health and beauty markets, further enhancing our portfolio balance, growth opportunities and consistency.
Let's go a little deeper into our sales results with Slide 5. We don't days adjust the arrows on this chart because we want you to be able to see the performance versus the reported sales. If we did adjust for days, the total sales arrow in the bottom right would be sideways. Our days adjusted consumer packaging sales overall were down about 1%. As in the fourth quarter, our portfolio offset weaknesses in some of the markets with strength in others. I want to take a moment to reflect on that because eight years ago, we couldn't do that. Our portfolio was too narrow and our exposure to a handful of customers was too concentrated. Today, our portfolio is much better diversified across consumer markets, customers and geographies. This allows us to deliver more consistent results across a wide range of economic conditions.
Food saw some modest weakness in the first quarter with categories like cereal and frozen pizza weaker in both Americas and in our international business. There were some bright lights too. We saw improvement in dry foods, including prepared foods and bakery items. Beverage results showed a rebound even with the impact of fewer shipping days. We saw year-over-year growth in both beer and soft drinks across both the Americas and international markets. Foodservice results were strong, marking the ninth consecutive quarter of strong results for us. As you've heard me say before, a third party's lower price declaration and paperboard for cups is 180 degrees removed from the reality of consistently strong and healthy market. Our customers ultimately want the same thing we want, accurate and transparent pricing.
We plan to eliminate third-party indices as a price change mechanism from our customer contracts over time. Turning to packaging for everyday household products. We have seen growth in some pet care categories and in home air filter frames, offset by declines in tissues, soaps and cleansers. Health and beauty is the smallest of our five markets, but offers very attractive growth opportunities. Most of our current business in this market is in Europe, where we supply many of the leading global brands. As we saw in Q4, there has been a pullback on the healthcare side broadly with some offsetting strength in beauty markets. Yet if we look to the future, our PaceSetter Rainier 100% recycled paperboard has opened up a whole new range of customer opportunities here in the Americas, markets that are currently served almost exclusively by bleach paperboard.
With pockets of improvement across our portfolio and a high level of engagement with our customers, we are optimistic that these results will improve as the year progresses. I want to spend a little more time with you on our sales results and where they differ from our expectations. If you join me on Slide 6, the chart at the top of the page is a summary of typical seasonality across our five markets. And while there are some modest differences in seasonality between our Americas and international businesses, this chart won't change much if we looked at those markets separately. Food sales, for example, aren't especially seasonal, but there is a dip most years in the second quarter and a pickup in the third. Again, these are a matter of a couple of percent.
So they aren't huge, but they are real and they are persistent. Package seasonality probably won't surprise you. People tend to drink more in warmer, drier months and less in colder, wetter months. Second quarter tends to be so much stronger than the third quarter, but both tend to be stronger than the colder parts of the year. So our positive first quarter performance is setting us up well as we move into the strongest part of the beverage selling season. Foodservice has the most pronounced quarterly seasonal variation of any of our five markets, which is mostly a function of consumers eating more meals at home during the colder months and after the winter holidays. So the fact that for the third year in a row, we've had strong results and what's typically the weakest quarter confirms that the innovation we are bringing to the market is driving real value.
Right now, new product introductions like the Chick-fil-A Cold&Go cup are important growth drivers. One thing we really haven't talked about much in the past is the degree in which sales in a particular month can shape a quarter. February is a shorter month, but even if we adjust for that, February tends to be a slower month. March, on the other hand, usually has an extra day or two and is nearly always the best month of the quarter. But this year, March had an extra weekend and with the timing of Easter and particularly Good Friday negatively impacting our results in both the US and Europe. Looking ahead, reports that consumers are feeling the impact of price inflation and more focused on value are consistent with what we hear from our customers.
They tend to correlate with higher at-home food and beverage consumption, which is good for us. Meanwhile, as more consumers return to the office, they have less time to prepare meals at home and then tend to support a pickup in prepared foods, convenience items and on-the-go meal options. We are beginning to see that in our order patterns. Now let's turn to innovation. Slide 7 comes from our Investor Day presentation and I included it here as a reminder of just how big our growth potential is. The figures represent market opportunities in categories where we already have a packaging solution in the market or that will be commercialized very soon. Last week, the European Union passed a new packaging and packaging waste regulation called PPWR that will dramatically reshape the European consumer packaging industry.
PPWR put significant new restrictions on single-use plastic and a range of other materials and containers. We talked about PPWR at our Investor Day and highlighted our significant investments in innovation and execution capabilities, including our acquisition a few years ago of Europe's best consumer packaging innovator, AR Packaging. Those investments have positioned us very well to partner with customers to deliver the new and better packaging solution our customers will need to comply with the new regulations. On Slide 8, I want to highlight one of the more exciting innovations from our European team contributing to our innovation sales growth. Our Boardio paperboard canister was first developed for a French infant formula customer. We then adapted the package for candy and gum and more recently developed a third-generation package specifically for coffee.
Last week, we announced a partnership with Mother Parker, the largest coffee supplier to private-label brands in the United States. Mother Parker will bring our Boardio paperboard coffee canister to the US coffee market for the first time through large mass retailers. Our growing penetration of the coffee market really demonstrates Boardio value proposition. For our customers, Boardio reduces transportation and warehouse space. Meanwhile, our integrated degassing valve keeps coffee pressure longer. Boardio for coffee reduces plastic by roughly half and our container has been verified to be recyclable by two of the leading recycling authorities. So consumers get an attractive, convenient new package that keeps the coffee fresher has a built-in lid and can be tossed in with the rest of your recyclables.
Finally, before I turn it over to Steve, I want to spend just a moment on Slide 9, which summarizes the four pillars that define who we are and what we aspire to accomplish. We are a results-driven company with unmatched capabilities and scale and substantial competitive advantages. We really do have manage life's everyday moments for a renewable future and our products are in consumers' hands throughout the day. I'm excited by what I see ahead of us in 2024 and confident that we will drive tremendous value for investors and for all of our stakeholders in the years ahead. Now let me turn it over to Steve. Steve?
Stephen Scherger: Thank you, Mike. Turning to slide 10. In the first quarter, our portfolio did what it was designed to do, driving consistency in overall sales while managing changing consumer purchasing patterns. More than half of the 7% drop in reported net sales reflected our decision to produce and sell less paperboard in the open market. A somewhat unusual first quarter calendar with fewer shipping days, even with leap year and the timing of the Easter holiday reduced our packaging volumes by about 2%. The normal pass-through of input costs in our European business reduced sales by approximately 1%. On a days-adjusted basis, our sales were down about 1% year-over-year, a good improvement sequentially, but modestly shy of the flattish result we were expecting.
Turning to EBITDA, effectively all of the decline was a function of our decision to reduce production and open-market sales of bleached paperboard for the carton market, consistent with our practice of matching supply with demand. Even with that negative impact, we delivered a 19.6% adjusted EBITDA margin, just 30 basis points lower than a year ago when our open-market paperboard sales were much stronger. That kind of margin consistency is the result of a strong and balanced portfolio with solid execution and cost controls. Turning to slide 11. Let me take a few minutes to provide an update on some of our operations and capital investments. As we grow our sales and global capabilities, we regularly review our network to make sure it matches our needs.
We discussed at Investor Day, the strategic rationale for the Augusta sale, so I'll not repeat that here. We've always run our bleached paperboard manufacturing facilities as a system. So during the quarter, we made the necessary preparations to separate Augusta and to align the Texarkana facility to support our internal needs. As Mike pointed out earlier, Waco is moving ahead well. Foundations are largely complete, buildings that will handle incoming fiber and outgoing paperboard are well advanced and already in use at staging and assembling facilities for the rest of the construction activity. The infrastructure for our new recycled paperboard machine is being moved into place and framing for that building is on track. As a reminder, once Waco is up and running, we anticipate shutting down our Middletown and East Angus recycled paperboard manufacturing facilities, which will lower our overall costs and reduce future capital requirements.
We continue to expect the Waco investment to deliver an incremental $80 million in EBITDA in each of 2026 and 2027. Our packaging facilities are delivering the results we and our customers expect with excellent performance and cost discipline. One of our key initiatives this year is the build out of capacity to support our Cold&Go Cup Chick-fil-A as well as our new Nissin Noodles Cup. We are one of a very small group of consumer packaging companies who can invest at the scale necessary to support the largest consumer product launches. In Europe, we opened our new Bristol, UK beverage packaging and innovation facility. Bristol's new space is roughly double the size we had previously and is now well-positioned to support our growing beverage business in Europe, where products like our KeelClip are steadily replacing plastic ring carriers.
Having the beverage packaging innovation team co-located with a modern new production facility allows us to showcase our capabilities to more customers more often. Meanwhile, the Bell acquisition, which we closed in the third quarter of 2023 has significantly extended our reach and expanded our capabilities in the foodservice market and our geographic reach in food markets. Another great thing about Bell is that it brings us real opportunities to grow in both of those markets with plenty of room to increase volumes at those locations without significant additional capital. Turning to the outlook on slide 12. We expect to see an acceleration in volumes as the year progresses and positive sales growth for the full year. That is, of course, excluding the impact of the sale of Augusta.
As Mike has mentioned, our innovation sales are off to an excellent start and we are on track to deliver $200 million of innovation sales growth this year. The Augusta sale should close tomorrow, May 1st. Net proceeds are expected to be approximately $550 million. We have made some updates to our guidance on slide 13. As a reminder, the guidance we provided in February included a full year of Augusta production. With the sale expected to close tomorrow, we have updated guidance to reflect expected results for the four months that we will have owned Augusta. Again, keep in mind that we historically operated our bleached paperboard manufacturing facilities as a system. And so the $100 million and $33 million of adjusted EBITDA at the midpoint represent the book of business that we are selling along with the Augusta facility rather than how Augusta might have performed independently.
We have also narrowed the guidance range for the business. As such, the only change to the midpoint is to reflect the partial year of ownership of Augusta. And while we don't provide quarterly guidance, I do want to point out that we expect our second quarter EBITDA to be impacted by roughly $50 million versus the year ago quarter, which includes approximately $40 million related to the sale timing and the exclusion of two months of contribution from Augusta and approximately $10 million of higher planned maintenance costs that will impact the second quarter EBITDA margin, but we continue to expect full year margins consistent with our guidance and the targets we established with our Vision 2030 long-term financial model. Turning to slide 14, and stepping back for a moment.
Let me remind you of those Vision 2030 financial targets. Our base financial model is about consistency, reflecting the strength of the consumer packaging business we have built. Low single-digit sales growth, mid-single-digit adjusted EBITDA growth and high-single-digit adjusted EPS growth capture our outlook for the business over the next several years. Our customers decide the timing of product launches, therefore, innovation sales can be lumpy. So we could be a little higher or lower than these annual targets in any given year. We have the assets and the capabilities we need to reach these goals, and our 5% of sales target for capital spending leaves plenty of room for discretionary investments that will make us a better and more capable consumer packaging leader.
Turning to slide 15. We are in transition between Vision 2025's substantial investment programs and Vision 2030's focus on execution and cash flow. That shift really becomes clear as we move past peak CapEx this year. In 2025, the drop-in CapEx alone should drive a $200 million improvement in cash flow. In 2026 and 2027, we will see the incremental EBITDA benefit from the Waco investment and through 2030, we expect to generate upwards of $5 billion of cash. We will deploy that cash to drive returns for our stockholders with benefits for all of our stakeholders. Reinvesting to keep our business strong and to maintain our leadership position will always come first. We believe that a solid dividend that grows over time represents appropriate and responsible capital allocation.
Equally important is to maintain a strong financial position. I want to be clear about how we think about leverage. With the substantial and increasing cash flow we expect to generate, we plan to reduce leverage over time, but we will remain opportunistic. So our debt levels may fluctuate. You saw them rise modestly this quarter, for example. As we see it, we already have a business capable of being investment-grade. We will only pursue an investment-grade credit rating when doing so brings the most benefit for our stockholders. We view share repurchase as an attractive way to return excess cash to stockholders and we continue to review every potential capital deployment against the alternative of share repurchase. As I said a moment ago, we have the assets and capabilities we need to reach our financial targets.
We will, of course, always consider tuck-under M&A that can make our company's sustainable consumer packaging portfolio even stronger. As we have discussed, the bar for M&A is set fairly high right now. We've included some supplemental information as an appendix for your use in modeling. That concludes our prepared remarks. Let's turn the call back to the operator to begin the question-and-answer session. Operator?
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