Green energy drive puts Britain's resilience in doubt

wind farm

It had all the ingredients of another Brexit storm in a teacup: chest beating in Paris, warships in the Channel and, of course, fishermen.

But when France threatened to cut off Jersey’s electricity supply in the spat over post-Brexit fishing rights earlier this month, some claimed it underscored a deeper problem.

The move “helped expose Britain’s growing overdependence on imported power”, says Tony Lodge, research fellow at the Centre for Policy Studies. “Ministers must now prioritise energy security in tandem with decarbonisation.”

Jersey relies on France for 95pc of its electricity via three undersea cables. Meanwhile, the UK's overall reliance on electricity connections to Europe is growing.

With new subsea electricity cables in the pipeline, up to 25pc of British power could be met by imports in 2024.

But in a world where intermittent renewable energy is set to meet soaring electricity demands, is Britain’s import-heavy energy system resilient enough to cope?

Energy experts say the focus must move away from cutting imports towards increasing the UK's diversity of energy sources.

“The time when we had the most disrupted electricity supplies was actually during the miners strikes, at that time we didn't have diversity,” explains Robert Gross, director of the UK Energy Research Centre and energy policy professor at Imperial College.

“During the dash for gas years, we were more exposed [but] we never had supply interruptions ... the more that you can do to diversify your options, the more resilient your energy system is.”

Britain’s electricity supply has been transformed in the last decade, helping the UK reduce the most emissions of any major industrialised economy.

Fossil fuels accounted for three-quarters of electricity in 2010 but use of these dirty energy sources has since plunged 60pc. Coal has become almost obsolete - an energy source other countries, including Germany, have struggled to get away from.

Meanwhile, renewable energy has rocketed with solar, wind, hydro and biomass accounting for 39pc of the UK’s electricity consumption in 2020.

Driven by solar and wind, the ten-fold increase in clean energy supply in the last 10 years meant renewables output overtook fossil fuels for the first time in 2020.

Last year’s Energy White Paper committed to generating 40GW of offshore wind by 2030, enough to power every home in Britain.

Progress has been rapid but big challenges remain to ensure government policy can drive the next stage of the clean energy revolution as the sector prepares for higher electricity demand.

“When they started investing in new [renewable] technologies, it was a very different market in a very different world from where we are today,” says Emma Pinchbeck, chief executive of Energy UK.

“We're going to need to do what we did for renewables for things like carbon capture and storage, clean hydrogen, wave and tidal.”

She says new investments are needed but cautions that “there’s a bit of a policy gap” as the sector awaits action following the Energy White Paper.

Going green comes with big challenges, however. The White Paper expects power demand to roughly double by 2050 as sectors move away from dirty fuels and electric cars replace diesel and petrol vehicles.

Renewables will make up the bulk of energy by 2050 but the UK’s most important clean energy sources - solar and wind - are dependent on the weather.

“What do you do when it's calm weather and when it's overcast and cloudy?” says Iain Staffell, a sustainable energy expert at Imperial College.

“Do we just rely very heavily on lots of gas power stations to provide that backup or can we swap to something low carbon? I think that's one of our big, big challenges.”

Pinchbeck adds the energy system will need to be ready to cope with more extreme weather as climate change accelerates.

Experts stress that diversity of energy and new storage solutions can help solve lumpy renewables supply.

Nuclear power, which still provides a fifth of UK electricity, can shore up supply with the Government planning to beef up the sector. The White Paper said ministers will “bring at least one large scale nuclear project to the point of final investment decision by the end of this parliament”.

More interconnectors that allow energy to be transferred with neighbours, ramping up electricity storage and burning biomass or hydrogen are possible solutions, says Staffell.

Energy imports are also set to become even more important after hitting a record high in recent years.

Electricity imported accounted for 7pc of supply at the end of 2020 with the UK heavily reliant on imports of natural gas, which makes up more than a third of electricity.

That reliance is only set to grow.

A new undersea electricity link between Hampshire and Normandy in France became fully operational in January while a connection with Norway is set to open later this year. Five interconnectors are currently active but several more are planned.

“We need more interconnection with the rest of Europe,” says Michael Pollitt, economist at Cambridge Judge Business School.

“We have a fairly isolated grid but we are building more interconnectors and we will need more than we have got at the moment.”

He says worries over energy supply being impacted by geopolitical tensions “tends to be a lot of scaremongering”

Others are more nervous about relying on tapping Europe’s electricity. Demand surges and supply lulls in the UK could coincide with those of European neighbours. Meanwhile experts say Brexit has made sharing electricity more complex.

“Interconnectors are great, but you have to remember there's someone on the other end who might be wanting power at exactly the same time you are,” says Staffell.

“Interconnectors will still help very much but there are certain big events where they might not.”

Lodge believes rising reliance on imports and interconnectors is Britain “offshoring its energy supply, emissions and jobs into Europe”.

“The real key for weather dependent renewables is storage,” he says. “My concern has always been being on the end of wires from the Continent.”