Grenke AG (ETR:GLJ), which is in the diversified financial business, and is based in Germany, saw significant share price volatility over the past couple of months on the XTRA, rising to the highs of €105.6 and falling to the lows of €82.2. This high level of volatility gives investors the opportunity to enter into the stock, and potentially buy at an artificially low price. A question to answer is whether Grenke’s current trading price of €83.6 reflective of the actual value of the mid-cap? Or is it currently undervalued, providing us with the opportunity to buy? Let’s take a look at Grenke’s outlook and value based on the most recent financial data to see if there are any catalysts for a price change.
What’s the opportunity in Grenke?
Grenke is currently overpriced based on my relative valuation model. I’ve used the price-to-equity ratio in this instance because there’s not enough visibility to forecast its cash flows. The stock’s ratio of 28.27x is currently well-above the industry average of 16.37x, meaning that it is trading at a more expensive price relative to its peers. But, is there another opportunity to buy low in the future? Given that Grenke’s share is fairly volatile (i.e. its price movements are magnified relative to the rest of the market) this could mean the price can sink lower, giving us another chance to buy in the future. This is based on its high beta, which is a good indicator for share price volatility.
What kind of growth will Grenke generate?
Investors looking for growth in their portfolio may want to consider the prospects of a company before buying its shares. Buying a great company with a robust outlook at a cheap price is always a good investment, so let’s also take a look at the company’s future expectations. Grenke’s earnings over the next few years are expected to increase by 58%, indicating a highly optimistic future ahead. This should lead to more robust cash flows, feeding into a higher share value.
What this means for you:
Are you a shareholder? It seems like the market has well and truly priced in GLJ’s positive outlook, with shares trading above its fair value. However, this brings up another question – is now the right time to sell? If you believe GLJ should trade below its current price, selling high and buying it back up again when its price falls towards its real value can be profitable. But before you make this decision, take a look at whether its fundamentals have changed.
Are you a potential investor? If you’ve been keeping tabs on GLJ for some time, now may not be the best time to enter into the stock. The price has surpassed its industry peers, which means it is likely that there is no more upside from mispricing. However, the optimistic prospect is encouraging for GLJ, which means it’s worth diving deeper into other factors in order to take advantage of the next price drop.
Price is just the tip of the iceberg. Dig deeper into what truly matters – the fundamentals – before you make a decision on Grenke. You can find everything you need to know about Grenke in the latest infographic research report. If you are no longer interested in Grenke, you can use our free platform to see my list of over 50 other stocks with a high growth potential.
To help readers see past the short term volatility of the financial market, we aim to bring you a long-term focused research analysis purely driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis does not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements.
The author is an independent contributor and at the time of publication had no position in the stocks mentioned. For errors that warrant correction please contact the editor at firstname.lastname@example.org.