UK markets closed

If You Had Bought PACCAR (NASDAQ:PCAR) Stock A Year Ago, You Could Pocket A 31% Gain Today

Simply Wall St

The simplest way to invest in stocks is to buy exchange traded funds. But one can do better than that by picking better than average stocks (as part of a diversified portfolio). For example, the PACCAR Inc (NASDAQ:PCAR) share price is up 31% in the last year, clearly besting the market return of around 25% (not including dividends). So that should have shareholders smiling. However, the longer term returns haven't been so impressive, with the stock up just 18% in the last three years.

See our latest analysis for PACCAR

To paraphrase Benjamin Graham: Over the short term the market is a voting machine, but over the long term it's a weighing machine. One flawed but reasonable way to assess how sentiment around a company has changed is to compare the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price.

During the last year PACCAR grew its earnings per share (EPS) by 12%. The share price gain of 31% certainly outpaced the EPS growth. This indicates that the market is now more optimistic about the stock.

You can see how EPS has changed over time in the image below (click on the chart to see the exact values).

NasdaqGS:PCAR Past and Future Earnings, January 8th 2020

It's probably worth noting that the CEO is paid less than the median at similar sized companies. But while CEO remuneration is always worth checking, the really important question is whether the company can grow earnings going forward. This free interactive report on PACCAR's earnings, revenue and cash flow is a great place to start, if you want to investigate the stock further.

What About Dividends?

As well as measuring the share price return, investors should also consider the total shareholder return (TSR). Whereas the share price return only reflects the change in the share price, the TSR includes the value of dividends (assuming they were reinvested) and the benefit of any discounted capital raising or spin-off. Arguably, the TSR gives a more comprehensive picture of the return generated by a stock. As it happens, PACCAR's TSR for the last year was 37%, which exceeds the share price return mentioned earlier. The dividends paid by the company have thusly boosted the total shareholder return.

A Different Perspective

We're pleased to report that PACCAR shareholders have received a total shareholder return of 37% over one year. That's including the dividend. That gain is better than the annual TSR over five years, which is 7.8%. Therefore it seems like sentiment around the company has been positive lately. Someone with an optimistic perspective could view the recent improvement in TSR as indicating that the business itself is getting better with time. Most investors take the time to check the data on insider transactions. You can click here to see if insiders have been buying or selling.

But note: PACCAR may not be the best stock to buy. So take a peek at this free list of interesting companies with past earnings growth (and further growth forecast).

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on US exchanges.

If you spot an error that warrants correction, please contact the editor at editorial-team@simplywallst.com. This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Simply Wall St has no position in the stocks mentioned.

We aim to bring you long-term focused research analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Thank you for reading.