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If You Had Bought Trafalgar Property Group (LON:TRAF) Stock Five Years Ago, You'd Be Sitting On A 89% Loss, Today

We're definitely into long term investing, but some companies are simply bad investments over any time frame. We don't wish catastrophic capital loss on anyone. Imagine if you held Trafalgar Property Group plc (LON:TRAF) for half a decade as the share price tanked 89%. And some of the more recent buyers are probably worried, too, with the stock falling 85% in the last year. Unfortunately the share price momentum is still quite negative, with prices down 32% in thirty days.

We really hope anyone holding through that price crash has a diversified portfolio. Even when you lose money, you don't have to lose the lesson.

View our latest analysis for Trafalgar Property Group

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Trafalgar Property Group wasn't profitable in the last twelve months, it is unlikely we'll see a strong correlation between its share price and its earnings per share (EPS). Arguably revenue is our next best option. When a company doesn't make profits, we'd generally expect to see good revenue growth. Some companies are willing to postpone profitability to grow revenue faster, but in that case one does expect good top-line growth.

In the last five years Trafalgar Property Group saw its revenue shrink by 18% per year. That's definitely a weaker result than most pre-profit companies report. So it's not altogether surprising to see the share price down 36% per year in the same time period. We don't think this is a particularly promising picture. Ironically, that behavior could create an opportunity for the contrarian investor - but only if there are good reasons to predict a brighter future.

The image below shows how earnings and revenue have tracked over time (if you click on the image you can see greater detail).

AIM:TRAF Income Statement April 9th 2020
AIM:TRAF Income Statement April 9th 2020

Take a more thorough look at Trafalgar Property Group's financial health with this free report on its balance sheet.

A Different Perspective

While the broader market lost about 18% in the twelve months, Trafalgar Property Group shareholders did even worse, losing 85%. However, it could simply be that the share price has been impacted by broader market jitters. It might be worth keeping an eye on the fundamentals, in case there's a good opportunity. Unfortunately, last year's performance may indicate unresolved challenges, given that it was worse than the annualised loss of 36% over the last half decade. We realise that Baron Rothschild has said investors should "buy when there is blood on the streets", but we caution that investors should first be sure they are buying a high quality business. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. For instance, we've identified 6 warning signs for Trafalgar Property Group (3 are a bit concerning) that you should be aware of.

For those who like to find winning investments this free list of growing companies with recent insider purchasing, could be just the ticket.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on GB exchanges.

If you spot an error that warrants correction, please contact the editor at editorial-team@simplywallst.com. This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Simply Wall St has no position in the stocks mentioned.

We aim to bring you long-term focused research analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Thank you for reading.