Yahoo Finance Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting For FibroGen, Inc. After Its Full-Year Results
Last week, you might have seen that FibroGen, Inc. (NASDAQ:FGEN) released its annual result to the market. The early response was not positive, with shares down 4.9% to US$39.45 in the past week. Revenues of US$257m came in a modest 9.8% below forecasts. Statutory losses were a relative bright spot though, with a per-share loss of US$0.89 coming in a substantial 162% smaller than what analysts had expected. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what top analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether analysts have changed their mind on FibroGen after the latest results.
View our latest analysis for FibroGen
After the latest results, the seven analysts covering FibroGen are now predicting revenues of US$334.6m in 2020. If met, this would reflect a sizeable 30% improvement in sales compared to the last 12 months. Per-share losses are expected to creep up to US$0.85, on a statutory basis. Yet prior to the latest earnings, analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$325.0m and losses of US$0.088 per share in 2020. While next year's revenue estimates increased, there was also a large cut to EPS expectations, suggesting the consensus has a bit of a mixed view of these results.
There was no major change to the consensus price target of US$65.86, with growing revenues seemingly enough to offset the concern of growing losses. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. Currently, the most bullish analyst values FibroGen at US$85.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$46.00. There are definitely some different views on the stock, but the range of estimates is not wide enough as to imply that the situation is unforecastable, in our view.
Another way to assess these estimates is by comparing them to past performance, and seeing whether analysts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the market. It's clear from the latest estimates that FibroGen's rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with forecast 30% revenue growth noticeably faster than its historical growth of 13%p.a. over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to grow their revenue at 16% per year. Factoring in the forecast acceleration in revenue, it's pretty clear that FibroGen is expected to grow much faster than its market.
The Bottom Line
Pleasantly, analysts also upgraded their revenue estimates, and their forecasts suggest the business is expected to grow faster than the wider market. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.
With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on FibroGen. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for FibroGen going out to 2024, and you can see them free on our platform here..
We also provide an overview of the FibroGen Board and CEO remuneration and length of tenure at the company, and whether insiders have been buying the stock, here.
If you spot an error that warrants correction, please contact the editor at editorial-team@simplywallst.com. This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Simply Wall St has no position in the stocks mentioned.
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