Unfortunately for some shareholders, the at Home Group (LON:PETS) share price has dived 37% in the last thirty days. The stock has been solid, longer term, gaining 23% in the last year.
All else being equal, a share price drop should make a stock more attractive to potential investors. While the market sentiment towards a stock is very changeable, in the long run, the share price will tend to move in the same direction as earnings per share. The implication here is that long term investors have an opportunity when expectations of a company are too low. One way to gauge market expectations of a stock is to look at its Price to Earnings Ratio (PE Ratio). A high P/E ratio means that investors have a high expectation about future growth, while a low P/E ratio means they have low expectations about future growth.
How Does at Home Group's P/E Ratio Compare To Its Peers?
We can tell from its P/E ratio of 19.56 that there is some investor optimism about at Home Group. As you can see below, at Home Group has a higher P/E than the average company (8.8) in the specialty retail industry.
Its relatively high P/E ratio indicates that at Home Group shareholders think it will perform better than other companies in its industry classification. Shareholders are clearly optimistic, but the future is always uncertain. So investors should delve deeper. I like to check if company insiders have been buying or selling.
How Growth Rates Impact P/E Ratios
If earnings fall then in the future the 'E' will be lower. Therefore, even if you pay a low multiple of earnings now, that multiple will become higher in the future. A higher P/E should indicate the stock is expensive relative to others -- and that may encourage shareholders to sell.
at Home Group increased earnings per share by a whopping 36% last year. And earnings per share have improved by 14% annually, over the last five years. I'd therefore be a little surprised if its P/E ratio was not relatively high. Unfortunately, earnings per share are down 13% a year, over 3 years.
Don't Forget: The P/E Does Not Account For Debt or Bank Deposits
It's important to note that the P/E ratio considers the market capitalization, not the enterprise value. So it won't reflect the advantage of cash, or disadvantage of debt. In theory, a company can lower its future P/E ratio by using cash or debt to invest in growth.
Spending on growth might be good or bad a few years later, but the point is that the P/E ratio does not account for the option (or lack thereof).
at Home Group's Balance Sheet
Net debt totals 14% of at Home Group's market cap. This could bring some additional risk, and reduce the number of investment options for management; worth remembering if you compare its P/E to businesses without debt.
The Verdict On at Home Group's P/E Ratio
at Home Group's P/E is 19.6 which is above average (12.5) in its market. The company is not overly constrained by its modest debt levels, and its recent EPS growth is nothing short of stand-out. So on this analysis a high P/E ratio seems reasonable. What can be absolutely certain is that the market has become significantly less optimistic about at Home Group over the last month, with the P/E ratio falling from 31.2 back then to 19.6 today. For those who prefer to invest with the flow of momentum, that might be a bad sign, but for a contrarian, it may signal opportunity.
Investors have an opportunity when market expectations about a stock are wrong. People often underestimate remarkable growth -- so investors can make money when fast growth is not fully appreciated. So this free visualization of the analyst consensus on future earnings could help you make the right decision about whether to buy, sell, or hold.
Of course, you might find a fantastic investment by looking at a few good candidates. So take a peek at this free list of companies with modest (or no) debt, trading on a P/E below 20.
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