Yahoo Finance Incyte Corporation (NASDAQ:INCY) First-Quarter Results: Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting For This Year
The quarterly results for Incyte Corporation (NASDAQ:INCY) were released last week, making it a good time to revisit its performance. The results were mixed overall, with revenues slightly ahead of analyst estimates at US$569m. Statutory losses by contrast were 7.9% larger than predictions at US$3.33 per share. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.
See our latest analysis for Incyte
Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from Incyte's 20 analysts is for revenues of US$2.44b in 2020, which would reflect a solid 9.3% improvement in sales compared to the last 12 months. The loss per share is expected to ameliorate slightly, reducing to US$1.57. Before this earnings announcement, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$2.43b and losses of US$1.30 per share in 2020. So it's pretty clear the analysts have mixed opinions on Incyte even after this update; although they reconfirmed their revenue numbers, it came at the cost of a per-share losses.
As a result, there was no major change to the consensus price target of US$99.35, with the analysts implicitly confirming that the business looks to be performing in line with expectations, despite higher forecast losses. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Incyte at US$125 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$79.00. As you can see, analysts are not all in agreement on the stock's future, but the range of estimates is still reasonably narrow, which could suggest that the outcome is not totally unpredictable.
Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Incyte's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues next year expected to grow 9.3%, compared to a historical growth rate of 25% over the past five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 19% per year. So it's pretty clear that, while revenue growth is expected to slow down, the wider industry is also expected to grow faster than Incyte.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing to take away is that the analysts increased their loss per share estimates for next year. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply revenues will perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$99.35, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.
Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Incyte going out to 2024, and you can see them free on our platform here..
Even so, be aware that Incyte is showing 1 warning sign in our investment analysis , you should know about...
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