Yahoo Finance The Ionis Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (NASDAQ:IONS) First-Quarter Results Are Out And Analysts Have Published New Forecasts
Ionis Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (NASDAQ:IONS) shareholders are probably feeling a little disappointed, since its shares fell 6.8% to US$40.16 in the week after its latest quarterly results. Revenues of US$119m fell short of estimates by 13%, but statutory losses were relatively mild, coming in 8.7% smaller than the analysts expected, at US$0.98 per share. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.
Check out our latest analysis for Ionis Pharmaceuticals
Taking into account the latest results, the 20 analysts covering Ionis Pharmaceuticals provided consensus estimates of US$599.4m revenue in 2024, which would reflect a sizeable 23% decline over the past 12 months. Per-share losses are expected to explode, reaching US$3.94 per share. Before this latest report, the consensus had been expecting revenues of US$619.7m and US$3.94 per share in losses.
The consensus price target was broadly unchanged at US$58.17, implying that the business is performing roughly in line with expectations, despite a downwards adjustment to forecast revenue next year. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Ionis Pharmaceuticals at US$85.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$33.00. Note the wide gap in analyst price targets? This implies to us that there is a fairly broad range of possible scenarios for the underlying business.
These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Ionis Pharmaceuticals' past performance and to peers in the same industry. Over the past five years, revenues have declined around 5.6% annually. Worse, forecasts are essentially predicting the decline to accelerate, with the estimate for an annualised 29% decline in revenue until the end of 2024. Compare this against analyst estimates for companies in the broader industry, which suggest that revenues (in aggregate) are expected to grow 18% annually. So it's pretty clear that, while it does have declining revenues, the analysts also expect Ionis Pharmaceuticals to suffer worse than the wider industry.
The Bottom Line
The most obvious conclusion is that the analysts made no changes to their forecasts for a loss next year. On the negative side, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.
With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have forecasts for Ionis Pharmaceuticals going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.
Don't forget that there may still be risks. For instance, we've identified 1 warning sign for Ionis Pharmaceuticals that you should be aware of.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
