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Is Joules Group Plc (LON:JOUL) Potentially Undervalued?

Joules Group Plc (LON:JOUL), which is in the luxury business, and is based in United Kingdom, led the AIM gainers with a relatively large price hike in the past couple of weeks. Less-covered, small caps sees more of an opportunity for mispricing due to the lack of information available to the public, which can be a good thing. So, could the stock still be trading at a low price relative to its actual value? Today I will analyse the most recent data on Joules Group’s outlook and valuation to see if the opportunity still exists.

See our latest analysis for Joules Group

Is Joules Group still cheap?

According to my valuation model, Joules Group seems to be fairly priced at around 3.3% below my intrinsic value, which means if you buy Joules Group today, you’d be paying a reasonable price for it. And if you believe that the stock is really worth £0.97, then there isn’t much room for the share price grow beyond what it’s currently trading. So, is there another chance to buy low in the future? Given that Joules Group’s share is fairly volatile (i.e. its price movements are magnified relative to the rest of the market) this could mean the price can sink lower, giving us an opportunity to buy later on. This is based on its high beta, which is a good indicator for share price volatility.

What kind of growth will Joules Group generate?

AIM:JOUL Past and Future Earnings May 11th 2020
AIM:JOUL Past and Future Earnings May 11th 2020

Future outlook is an important aspect when you’re looking at buying a stock, especially if you are an investor looking for growth in your portfolio. Buying a great company with a robust outlook at a cheap price is always a good investment, so let’s also take a look at the company's future expectations. Though in the case of Joules Group, it is expected to deliver a highly negative earnings growth in the next few years, which doesn’t help build up its investment thesis. It appears that risk of future uncertainty is high, at least in the near term.

What this means for you:

Are you a shareholder? Currently, JOUL appears to be trading around its fair value, but given the uncertainty from negative returns in the future, this could be the right time to reduce the risk in your portfolio. Is your current exposure to the stock optimal for your total portfolio? And is the opportunity cost of holding a negative-outlook stock too high? Before you make a decision on the stock, take a look at whether its fundamentals have changed.

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Are you a potential investor? If you’ve been keeping tabs on JOUL for a while, now may not be the most advantageous time to buy, given it is trading around its fair value. The price seems to be trading at fair value, which means there’s less benefit from mispricing. Furthermore, the negative growth outlook increases the risk of holding the stock. However, there are also other important factors we haven’t considered today, which can help crystalize your views on JOUL should the price fluctuate below its true value.

Price is just the tip of the iceberg. Dig deeper into what truly matters – the fundamentals – before you make a decision on Joules Group. You can find everything you need to know about Joules Group in the latest infographic research report. If you are no longer interested in Joules Group, you can use our free platform to see my list of over 50 other stocks with a high growth potential.

If you spot an error that warrants correction, please contact the editor at editorial-team@simplywallst.com. This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Simply Wall St has no position in the stocks mentioned.

We aim to bring you long-term focused research analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Thank you for reading.