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Some Kier Group (LON:KIE) Shareholders Have Taken A Painful 94% Share Price Drop

Long term investing is the way to go, but that doesn't mean you should hold every stock forever. It hits us in the gut when we see fellow investors suffer a loss. Anyone who held Kier Group plc (LON:KIE) for five years would be nursing their metaphorical wounds since the share price dropped 94% in that time. We also note that the stock has performed poorly over the last year, with the share price down 79%. The falls have accelerated recently, with the share price down 20% in the last three months.

While a drop like that is definitely a body blow, money isn't as important as health and happiness.

See our latest analysis for Kier Group

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In his essay The Superinvestors of Graham-and-Doddsville Warren Buffett described how share prices do not always rationally reflect the value of a business. One way to examine how market sentiment has changed over time is to look at the interaction between a company's share price and its earnings per share (EPS).

Kier Group became profitable within the last five years. On the other hand, it reported a trailing twelve months loss, suggesting it isn't reliably profitable. Other metrics might give us a better handle on how its value is changing over time.

In contrast to the share price, revenue has actually increased by 7.0% a year in the five year period. A more detailed examination of the revenue and earnings may or may not explain why the share price languishes; there could be an opportunity.

The company's revenue and earnings (over time) are depicted in the image below (click to see the exact numbers).

LSE:KIE Income Statement, January 6th 2020
LSE:KIE Income Statement, January 6th 2020

If you are thinking of buying or selling Kier Group stock, you should check out this FREE detailed report on its balance sheet.

What about the Total Shareholder Return (TSR)?

Investors should note that there's a difference between Kier Group's total shareholder return (TSR) and its share price change, which we've covered above. The TSR is a return calculation that accounts for the value of cash dividends (assuming that any dividend received was reinvested) and the calculated value of any discounted capital raisings and spin-offs. Its history of dividend payouts mean that Kier Group's TSR, which was a 90% drop over the last 5 years, was not as bad as the share price return.

A Different Perspective

Investors in Kier Group had a tough year, with a total loss of 78%, against a market gain of about 20%. Even the share prices of good stocks drop sometimes, but we want to see improvements in the fundamental metrics of a business, before getting too interested. Unfortunately, last year's performance may indicate unresolved challenges, given that it was worse than the annualised loss of 37% over the last half decade. We realise that Buffett has said investors should 'buy when there is blood on the streets', but we caution that investors should first be sure they are buying a high quality businesses. You could get a better understanding of Kier Group's growth by checking out this more detailed historical graph of earnings, revenue and cash flow.

If you would prefer to check out another company -- one with potentially superior financials -- then do not miss this free list of companies that have proven they can grow earnings.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on GB exchanges.

If you spot an error that warrants correction, please contact the editor at editorial-team@simplywallst.com. This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Simply Wall St has no position in the stocks mentioned.

We aim to bring you long-term focused research analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Thank you for reading.