Kymera Therapeutics, Inc. (NASDAQ:KYMR) Just Released Its First-Quarter Earnings: Here's What Analysts Think

It's been a pretty great week for Kymera Therapeutics, Inc. (NASDAQ:KYMR) shareholders, with its shares surging 12% to US$37.40 in the week since its latest quarterly results. Statutory losses were a bit smaller than expected, at just US$0.69 per share, even though revenues of US$10m missed analyst expectations by a shocking 21%. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

See our latest analysis for Kymera Therapeutics

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After the latest results, the consensus from Kymera Therapeutics' 17 analysts is for revenues of US$50.4m in 2024, which would reflect a substantial 37% decline in revenue compared to the last year of performance. Losses are expected to increase substantially, hitting US$2.92 per share. Before this latest report, the consensus had been expecting revenues of US$52.9m and US$3.23 per share in losses. So there seems to have been a moderate uplift in analyst sentiment with the latest consensus release, given the upgrade to loss per share forecasts for this year.

There was no major change to the US$50.93average price target, suggesting that the adjustments to revenue and earnings are not expected to have a long-term impact on the business. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. There are some variant perceptions on Kymera Therapeutics, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$112 and the most bearish at US$30.00 per share. With such a wide range in price targets, analysts are almost certainly betting on widely divergent outcomes in the underlying business. As a result it might not be a great idea to make decisions based on the consensus price target, which is after all just an average of this wide range of estimates.

Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. These estimates imply that revenue is expected to slow, with a forecast annualised decline of 45% by the end of 2024. This indicates a significant reduction from annual growth of 1.8% over the last three years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the same industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 18% annually for the foreseeable future. It's pretty clear that Kymera Therapeutics' revenues are expected to perform substantially worse than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that the analysts made no changes to their forecasts for a loss next year. On the negative side, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. Even so, long term profitability is more important for the value creation process. The consensus price target held steady at US$50.93, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Kymera Therapeutics going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here..

We don't want to rain on the parade too much, but we did also find 4 warning signs for Kymera Therapeutics (1 is a bit unpleasant!) that you need to be mindful of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.